UWMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UWMC - UWM Holdings Corporation
$1.92
0.10 (5.49%)
▲
5d:
+4.35%
30d:
-11.52%
90d:
-47.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.1% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.1% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.22
54.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UWMC is currently trading at $1.92, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.87 to $2.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1.72, while resistance sits at $2.05. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.87 (+101.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $1.72, while resistance sits at $2.05. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.87 (+101.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$1.87 -
$2.14
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 101.4% below Wall St target ($3.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$1.87 -
$2.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$1.72
Resistance Level
$2.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.18
Wall Street Target
$3.87
(+101.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.8%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 7.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→8)
$2.55
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 31.7%)
$21.76
(+1033%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 31.7%)
$4.38
(+128%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 31.7%)
$3.73
(+94%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.30
Bull Case
$3.07
(+60%)
Analyst growth 53.2%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$2.79
(+45%)
Market implied 53.2%, PE stable at 6.1
Bear Case
$1.24
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$3.49
(+81.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+81.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 8:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UWMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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