VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$69.58
-0.92 (-1.30%)
▼
5d:
+1.86%
30d:
+0.75%
90d:
-7.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.30
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.56
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $69.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.70 to $69.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.75, while resistance sits at $73.52.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.89 (+42.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $64.75, while resistance sits at $73.52.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.89 (+42.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$64.70 -
$69.28
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.1% below Wall St target ($98.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.70 -
$69.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.75
Resistance Level
$73.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.39
Wall Street Target
$98.89
(+42.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.53
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$58.00
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$52.95
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$68.06
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.3%)
$4691.44
(+6643%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$90.93
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 9.3%)
$77.29
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.83
Bull Case
$155.10
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$141.00
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$47.94
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$89.44
(+28.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 1:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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