Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$76.27
-2.68 (-3.39%)
▼
5d:
+2.22%
30d:
+15.54%
90d:
+4.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.43
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $76.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.57 to $74.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.5) is in line with its historical norms (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.33, while resistance sits at $79.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.86 (+28.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.33, while resistance sits at $79.77. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.86 (+28.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.57 -
$74.22
Company Quality Score
24/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.3% below Wall St target ($97.86)
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.57 -
$74.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.33
Resistance Level
$79.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.45
Wall Street Target
$97.86
(+28.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.5 vs 0.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.37
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$70.58
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$67.90
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$75.77
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.7%)
$4537.44
(+5849%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$100.80
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$85.68
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.05
Bull Case
$173.69
(+128%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$157.90
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$53.69
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$85.11
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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