VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$65.47
0.66 (1.02%)
▲
5d:
+6.96%
30d:
-9.7%
90d:
-0.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VIST trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VIST trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$99.95
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $65.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.02 to $71.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.79 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $96.79 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$63.02 -
$71.72
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($96.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.02 -
$71.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.01
Resistance Level
$78.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.37
Wall Street Target
$96.79
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
97.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.92
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$53.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$47.73
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$63.79
(-3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.4%)
$3970.57
(+5965%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 1.4%)
$68.20
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 1.4%)
$57.97
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.86
Bull Case
$142.58
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$129.62
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$44.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$87.50
(+33.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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