Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$74.84
4.23 (5.99%)
▲
5d:
+4.02%
30d:
+9.58%
90d:
+12.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.18
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $74.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.16 to $73.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.64 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.64 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$66.16 -
$73.06
Company Quality Score
25/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
33.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($90.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.16 -
$73.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.47
Resistance Level
$75.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.39
Wall Street Target
$90.64
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.45
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$64.45
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$59.81
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$77.65
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.2%)
$4114.29
(+5398%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 2.2%)
$79.78
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 2.2%)
$67.81
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.48
Bull Case
$155.34
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$141.22
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$48.01
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$97.17
(+29.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:07 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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