Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$64.25
-0.38 (-0.59%)
▼
5d:
-4.72%
30d:
-16.59%
90d:
+4.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When VIST Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$131.94
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.93
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $64.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.40 to $75.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.79 (+42.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VIST scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $91.79 (+42.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$67.40 -
$75.69
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.9% below Wall St target ($91.79)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.40 -
$75.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.19
Resistance Level
$71.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.36
Wall Street Target
$91.79
(+42.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.82
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$52.04
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$46.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$64.98
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$5160.79
(+7932%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$91.17
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$77.50
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.60
Bull Case
$142.19
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$129.26
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$43.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$89.14
(+38.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Oil & Gas E&P Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Oil & Gas E&P by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FANG
Diamondback Energy Inc |
STRONG BUY
31 analysts |
$235 | 64 BUY |
|
EXE
Expand Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$126 | 68 BUY |
|
CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$37 | 53 HOLD |
|
DVN
Devon Energy Corporation |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$60 | 61 BUY |
|
COP
ConocoPhillips |
BUY
27 analysts |
$146 | 60 BUY |
