VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$66.70
-1.46 (-2.14%)
▼
5d:
-2.76%
30d:
-11.7%
90d:
-1.69%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VIST trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VIST trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.46
Based on 0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.20
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $66.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.86 to $76.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.17 (+45.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.17 (+45.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$69.86 -
$76.31
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.7% below Wall St target ($97.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.86 -
$76.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.01
Resistance Level
$78.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.36
Wall Street Target
$97.17
(+45.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
97.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Profit Margin
25.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.03
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$54.03
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$48.62
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$80.79
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.7%)
$3594.22
(+5289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: -3.7%)
$59.59
(-11%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: -3.7%)
$50.65
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.86
Bull Case
$149.95
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$136.32
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$46.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.6
Stabilization Target:
$110.83
(+66.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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