Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$55.49
-0.48 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-3.23%
30d:
-20.66%
90d:
-18.77%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$60.94 – $72.53
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.3x
CHEAP
vs 0.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$93.90
+69.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$53.89 / $72.74
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIST shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.76
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.68
45.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $55.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.94 to $72.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.89 (+69.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.89 (+69.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$60.94 -
$72.53
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$60.94 -
$72.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$53.89
Resistance Level
$72.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.2% below Wall St target ($93.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.26
Wall Street Target
$93.90
(+69.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
83.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.5%
Profit Margin
19.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$44.95
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$40.45
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$78.50
(+42%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$6278.20
(+11214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$81.45
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.2, Growth: 13.6%)
$69.24
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$123.13
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$111.94
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$38.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$107.68
(+94.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+94.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VIST)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Sep 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on VIST are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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