VIST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIST - Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.
$68.32
-2.13 (-3.02%)
▼
5d:
+2.57%
30d:
+13.19%
90d:
-4.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VIST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.01
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIST is currently trading at $68.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $62.73 to $67.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.4) compared to its historical average (0.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.38, while resistance sits at $71.14. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.11 (+37.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $63.38, while resistance sits at $71.14. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: VIST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.11 (+37.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$62.73 -
$67.62
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.8% below Wall St target ($97.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$62.73 -
$67.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.38
Resistance Level
$71.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.42
Wall Street Target
$97.11
(+37.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
102.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.8%
Profit Margin
23.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.31
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$60.54
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$56.12
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$66.71
(-5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.4%)
$3723.98
(+5186%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 2.4%)
$75.57
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 2.4%)
$64.23
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.89
Bull Case
$150.85
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$137.14
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$46.63
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.5
Stabilization Target:
$83.74
(+18.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:12 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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