VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$268.72
4.08 (1.54%)
▲
5d:
+6.47%
30d:
+9.95%
90d:
-3.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$406.79
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$252.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $268.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $241.49 to $253.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.3) is in line with its historical norms (26.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $269.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VMC scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.30 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $269.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VMC scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.30 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$241.49 -
$253.44
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($308.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$241.49 -
$253.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$238.72
Resistance Level
$269.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.26
Wall Street Target
$308.30
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.3 vs 26.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$266.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$264.97
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$263.12
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→27)
$268.48
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.3, Growth: 15.6%)
$414.87
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$313.71
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$266.65
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.48
Bull Case
$351.23
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$319.30
(+19%)
Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$179.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.3 to 26.8
Stabilization Target:
$274.20
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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