VMC Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company) MINING & QUARRYING OF NONMETALLIC MINERALS (NO FUELS)

VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$284.37
-2.94 (-1.02%) ▼
5d: -4.47% 30d: +16.77% 90d: +2.47%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
30/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$248.35 – $282.86
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
28.2x FAIR
vs 26.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$312.65
+9.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$259.98 / $303.11
Trend: Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$393.21
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$244.15
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $284.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $248.35 to $282.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.2) is in line with its historical norms (26.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $259.98, while resistance sits at $303.11.

Market Sentiment: VMC scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $248.35 - $282.86
Company Quality Score 30/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 27.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $248.35 - $282.86
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $259.98
Resistance Level $303.11
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($312.65)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with -4.7% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 28.18
Wall Street Target $312.65 (+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -0.7%
Profit Margin 13.8%
Valuation Premium vs History +1.6% premium
PE vs Historical 28.2 vs 26.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $288.92 (+2%)
2-Year Target $293.54 (+3%)
3-Year Target $298.24 (+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→27) PE COMPRESSION $283.60 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 28.2, Growth: 14.7%) $429.40 (+51%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.7%) $302.59 (+6%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.7%) $257.20 (-10%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.45
Bull Case $377.38 (+33%)
Analyst growth 19.4%, PE expands to 37.4
Base Case $343.07 (+21%)
Market implied 19.4%, PE stable at 34.0
Bear Case $195.37 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VMC)

Bearish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: A bullish StockTwits user compares the valuation of $CAPS to larger peers $VMC, $MLM, and $CRH, suggesting a potential undervaluation of $CAPS.
Key Retail Themes: valuation comparison
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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