VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$243.06
-0.92 (-0.38%)
▼
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
-7.91%
90d:
-20.27%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$425.93
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$264.47
8.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $243.06, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $243.05 to $266.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (27.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $237.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VMC scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $319.61 (+31.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $237.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VMC scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $319.61 (+31.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$243.05 -
$266.36
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VMC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.5% below Wall St target ($319.61)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 21% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$243.05 -
$266.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$237.03
Resistance Level
$252.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.94
Wall Street Target
$319.61
(+31.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 27.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$230.18
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$217.98
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$206.43
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→27)
$242.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$380.75
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$338.57
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 16.1%)
$287.78
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.47
Bull Case
$335.70
(+38%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$305.18
(+26%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$165.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 27.0
Stabilization Target:
$286.06
(+17.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VMC price and gamma walls.
