VMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VMC - Vulcan Materials Company(Holding Company)
$280.15
11.58 (4.31%)
▲
5d:
-1.53%
30d:
-7.6%
90d:
-5.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$452.59
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$281.02
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VMC is currently trading at $280.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $279.70 to $303.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.9) is in line with its historical norms (27.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $266.68, while resistance sits at $300.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: VMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.55 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $266.68, while resistance sits at $300.63. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: VMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.55 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$279.70 -
$303.03
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($325.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$279.70 -
$303.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$266.68
Resistance Level
$300.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.93
Wall Street Target
$325.55
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.9 vs 27.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$259.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$250.62
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$242.10
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$269.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 18.1%)
$442.25
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.1%)
$367.77
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 18.1%)
$312.60
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.49
Bull Case
$378.62
(+41%)
Analyst growth 26.9%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$344.20
(+28%)
Market implied 26.9%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case
$184.44
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.9 to 27.7
Stabilization Target:
$298.43
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-02-23
Melissa H Anderson
SELL
1137 shares
2026-02-20
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