Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$166.71
+2.24 (+1.36%)
▲
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
-4.23%
90d:
+5.11%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$166.85 – $181.22
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.4x
CHEAP
vs 15.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$185.05
+11.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$160.11 / $188.50
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $180.40 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$171.73
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$106.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $166.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.85 to $181.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 111.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $160.11, while resistance sits at $188.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $185.05 (+11.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $160.11, while resistance sits at $188.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $185.05 (+11.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$166.85 -
$181.22
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$166.85 -
$181.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$160.11
Resistance Level
$188.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding XOM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($185.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.39
Wall Street Target
$185.05
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.4%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.21
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$150.14
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$142.48
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$167.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.9%)
$187.10
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -8.9%)
$126.14
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -8.9%)
$107.22
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.72
Bull Case
$231.74
(+39%)
Analyst growth 28.1%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$210.67
(+26%)
Market implied 28.1%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$111.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$195.47
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (XOM)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Exxon Mobil XOM signed a memorandum of understanding with Venezuela to evaluate potential oil investment opportunities. StockTwits messages suggest a bullish outlook on the stock.
Key Retail Themes:
Exxon's potential investment in Venezuela
Bullish sentiment on $XOM
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
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