Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation
$178.23
0.14 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
+2.03%
30d:
+10.54%
90d:
+13.57%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.14
Based on -2.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $178.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.93 to $174.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $180.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $180.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$160.93 -
$174.19
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
XOM is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($179.41)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.93 -
$174.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$167.82
Resistance Level
$180.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.58
Wall Street Target
$179.41
(+0.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.8%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$173.77
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$169.43
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$165.19
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$177.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.9%)
$189.52
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: -7.9%)
$139.12
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: -7.9%)
$118.25
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.77
Bull Case
$308.22
(+73%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$280.20
(+57%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$121.10
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$191.94
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:38 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is XOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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