Is XOM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, XOM is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of XOM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for XOM to be between $156.34 and $164.57. The current price is $165.99.

What is the analyst price target for XOM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for XOM is $170.91. This implies a potential upside of 3.0% from current levels.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation

PETROLEUM REFINING

$165.99

0.76 (0.46%) ▲

5d: +2.33%

30d: +3.91%

90d: +13.23%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 30, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $159.47 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XOM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -8.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$153.96

Based on -2.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$95.59

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $165.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $156.34 to $164.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $167.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $156.34 - $164.57

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($170.91)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $156.34 - $164.57

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $155.32

Resistance Level $167.37

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.38

Wall Street Target $170.91 (+3.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 44.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 112.8%

Profit Margin 9.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.4 vs 15.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $164.33 (-1%)

2-Year Target $162.69 (-2%)

3-Year Target $161.06 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→16) $166.48 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -8.1%) $168.72 (+2%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: -8.1%) $128.68 (-23%)

Bear: (PE: 13.1, Growth: -8.1%) $109.38 (-34%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.82

Bull Case $250.80 (+51%)

Analyst growth 38.0%, PE expands to 23.2

Base Case $228.00 (+37%)

Market implied 38.0%, PE stable at 21.1

Bear Case $112.36 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.9

Stabilization Target: $171.57 (+3.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.4%

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Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 AM

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