ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$66.12
0.94 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
-2.66%
90d:
-10.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 16.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.05
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.65
30.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $66.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.92 to $67.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (28.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $68.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+33.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $68.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+33.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.92 -
$67.25
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($87.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.92 -
$67.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.81
Resistance Level
$68.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.65
Wall Street Target
$87.92
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 28.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.51
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$53.56
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$48.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→29)
$83.66
(+27%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$129.91
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$99.32
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 14.5%)
$84.42
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$143.40
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.9
Base Case
$130.36
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$44.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 28.9
Stabilization Target:
$114.75
(+73.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+73.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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