ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$73.63
0.70 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
-0.84%
30d:
+9.55%
90d:
+8.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.46
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.04
21.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $73.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.19 to $73.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.5) compared to its historical average (26.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $71.15, while resistance sits at $76.20.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.24 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $71.15, while resistance sits at $76.20.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.24 (+15.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$68.19 -
$73.13
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($85.24)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$68.19 -
$73.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.15
Resistance Level
$76.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.53
Wall Street Target
$85.24
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 26.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$59.64
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$53.68
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→26)
$76.20
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.7%)
$117.12
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 13.7%)
$108.11
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$91.89
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.41 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.44
Bull Case
$88.91
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case
$73.63
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$56.33
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 26.3
Stabilization Target:
$104.53
(+42.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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