Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares (ALC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$66.03
-0.52 (-0.78%)
▼
5d:
-8.39%
30d:
-10.26%
90d:
-0.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.61
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$94.14
29.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $66.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $69.63 to $74.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.24 (+29.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $85.24 (+29.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$69.63 -
$74.03
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.1% below Wall St target ($85.24)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$69.63 -
$74.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.94
Resistance Level
$73.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.60
Wall Street Target
$85.24
(+29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 25.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.43
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$53.48
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$48.14
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→26)
$74.25
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.7%)
$117.97
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 13.7%)
$97.07
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.7%)
$82.51
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.92
Bull Case
$79.73
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$66.03
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$50.51
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 25.6
Stabilization Target:
$101.85
(+54.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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