Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares (ALC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$72.46
-1.60 (-2.16%)
âŧ
5d:
-6.27%
30d:
+15.02%
90d:
-1.44%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$64.59 â $73.42
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.4x
CHEAP
vs 24.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$81.98
+13.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$70.34 / $77.85
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.55
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.27
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $72.46, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.59 to $73.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (24.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.98 (+13.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.98 (+13.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$64.59 -
$73.42
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$64.59 -
$73.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$70.34
Resistance Level
$77.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.35
Wall Street Target
$81.98
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 24.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.16
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$60.40
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$55.15
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â24)
$72.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$111.19
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$102.73
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$87.32
(+21%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 18.35 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.95
Bull Case
$87.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$72.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$55.43
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 24.1
Stabilization Target:
$95.17
(+31.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ALC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish financial analyst expressed optimism towards $ALC on StockTwits, purchasing $75 calls. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment towards $ALC
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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