Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares (ALC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$64.11
0.98 (1.55%)
▲
5d:
+0.55%
30d:
-3.67%
90d:
-7.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALC trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$148.88
Based on 8.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$92.44
30.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $64.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.59 to $69.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.55 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $62.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.55 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$63.59 -
$69.27
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($83.55)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.59 -
$69.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$62.43
Resistance Level
$65.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.17
Wall Street Target
$83.55
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$51.93
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$46.74
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→25)
$71.69
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.4%)
$114.78
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 13.4%)
$93.45
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 13.4%)
$79.43
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$138.89
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.6
Base Case
$126.26
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.8
Bear Case
$42.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$98.33
(+53.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 10, 2026 7:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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