Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares (ALC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$63.76
-0.18 (-0.28%)
▼
5d:
-1.1%
30d:
-11.74%
90d:
-6.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.93
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.72
32.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $63.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.89 to $71.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (25.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.45 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.45 (+32.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.89 -
$71.47
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($84.45)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.89 -
$71.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.40
Resistance Level
$65.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.06
Wall Street Target
$84.45
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 25.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.38
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$51.65
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$46.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→25)
$72.35
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$118.76
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$93.50
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 13.6%)
$79.48
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (50x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$140.67
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 54.5
Base Case
$127.88
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 49.6
Bear Case
$43.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 42.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 25.0
Stabilization Target:
$99.24
(+55.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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