ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$69.00
1.19 (1.75%)
▲
5d:
+0.98%
30d:
+4.37%
90d:
-11.55%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.44
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.90
28.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $69.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.69 to $68.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (27.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $69.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $87.92 (+27.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.69 -
$68.15
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.4% below Wall St target ($87.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.69 -
$68.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.99
Resistance Level
$69.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.37
Wall Street Target
$87.92
(+27.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.6%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 27.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$62.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$55.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$50.30
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→28)
$80.79
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$130.05
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$103.73
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$88.17
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.67
Bull Case
$149.18
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.7
Base Case
$135.62
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.6
Bear Case
$46.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 27.9
Stabilization Target:
$110.82
(+60.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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