ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$281.26
-6.80 (-2.36%)
▼
5d:
-12.54%
30d:
-2.81%
90d:
-15.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
14d
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1 traders called ALNY this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALNY is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALNY is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$657.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$408.14
31.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $281.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $283.37 to $307.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.8) compared to its historical average (26.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $279.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $440.75 (+56.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $279.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $440.75 (+56.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$283.37 -
$307.91
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 56.7% below Wall St target ($440.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$283.37 -
$307.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$279.41
Resistance Level
$380.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.83
Wall Street Target
$440.75
(+56.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
96.4%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 26.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$260.45
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$241.17
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$223.33
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$280.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.1%)
$879.06
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 44.1%)
$840.79
(+199%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 44.1%)
$714.67
(+154%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.01 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.27
Bull Case
$339.62
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$281.26
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.0
Bear Case
$215.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.8 to 26.2
Stabilization Target:
$353.74
(+25.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 12:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
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