ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$219.00
-1.33 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-24.07%
30d:
-30.04%
90d:
-26.49%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALNY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$619.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$384.67
43.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $219.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $246.70 to $310.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (25.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $197.81, while resistance sits at $290.60.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.29 (+76.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $197.81, while resistance sits at $290.60.
Market Sentiment: ALNY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $386.29 (+76.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$246.70 -
$310.67
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.4% below Wall St target ($386.29)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-24.1%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$246.70 -
$310.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$197.81
Resistance Level
$290.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.21
Wall Street Target
$386.29
(+76.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
66.9%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 25.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$197.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$177.39
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$159.65
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→26)
$237.49
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 42.2%)
$758.84
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 42.2%)
$629.98
(+188%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 42.2%)
$535.48
(+145%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.73
Bull Case
$484.73
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.3
Base Case
$440.66
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.5
Bear Case
$149.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 25.6
Stabilization Target:
$325.77
(+48.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
Kevin Joseph Fitzgerald
SELL
1652 shares
2026-03-03
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