ALNY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$228.65
1.53 (0.67%)
â˛
5d:
+4.31%
30d:
-19.25%
90d:
-22.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALNY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ALNY is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$613.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$380.77
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $228.65, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $223.68 to $296.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (25.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $234.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALNY scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.76 (+64.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $234.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ALNY scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.76 (+64.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$223.68 -
$296.72
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.3% below Wall St target ($375.76)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$223.68 -
$296.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$208.04
Resistance Level
$234.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.15
Wall Street Target
$375.76
(+64.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
66.9%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 25.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.78
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$185.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$166.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â25)
$231.40
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 41.0%)
$714.24
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 41.0%)
$640.89
(+180%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 41.0%)
$544.76
(+138%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.81
Bull Case
$499.66
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$454.24
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.1
Bear Case
$154.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 25.2
Stabilization Target:
$317.42
(+38.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Melissa Mclaughlin
SELL
2286 shares
2026-04-06
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SELL
1624 shares
2026-04-02
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1652 shares
2026-03-03
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