Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALNY - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$219.72
-11.46 (-4.96%)
▼
5d:
-14.16%
30d:
-17.83%
90d:
-29.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALNY is down 14.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALNY is down 14.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$587.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$365.00
39.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALNY is currently trading at $219.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $236.09 to $257.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.7) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $371.12 (+68.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALNY is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $371.12 (+68.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$236.09 -
$257.40
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALNY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.9% below Wall St target ($371.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$236.09 -
$257.40
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.40
Resistance Level
$257.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.69
Wall Street Target
$371.12
(+68.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
66.9%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$197.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$177.97
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$160.18
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→24)
$220.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 40.6%)
$704.59
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 40.6%)
$610.91
(+178%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 40.6%)
$519.27
(+136%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.39
Bull Case
$508.60
(+132%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.2
Base Case
$462.36
(+110%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.9
Bear Case
$157.20
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$301.86
(+37.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 11:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALNY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced ALNY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALNY price and gamma walls.
