APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$152.67
-4.76 (-3.02%)
▼
5d:
+0.97%
30d:
-6.21%
90d:
+1.66%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$252.42
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$156.73
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $152.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $154.72 to $166.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.1) is in line with its historical norms (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $146.04, while resistance sits at $160.67. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $189.39 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $146.04, while resistance sits at $160.67. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $189.39 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$154.72 -
$166.35
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($189.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$154.72 -
$166.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.04
Resistance Level
$160.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.14
Wall Street Target
$189.39
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.1 vs 28.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$144.24
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$140.20
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→28)
$152.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.1, Growth: 19.4%)
$259.96
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$206.98
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 19.4%)
$175.93
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$290.67
(+90%)
Analyst growth 67.8%, PE expands to 49.8
Base Case
$264.24
(+73%)
Market implied 67.8%, PE stable at 45.2
Bear Case
$107.05
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.1 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$165.89
(+8.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 26, 2026 11:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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