TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$205.69
-0.89 (-0.43%)
▼
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+2.11%
90d:
-2.82%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$348.13
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$216.16
4.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $205.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $197.84 to $206.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.27, while resistance sits at $215.03.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.79 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $190.27, while resistance sits at $215.03.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.79 (+20.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$197.84 -
$206.72
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($246.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$197.84 -
$206.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.27
Resistance Level
$215.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.94
Wall Street Target
$246.79
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$197.26
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$189.17
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$181.41
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$206.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$382.76
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 12.7%)
$294.27
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 12.7%)
$250.13
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.20
Bull Case
$287.52
(+40%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$261.39
(+27%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$140.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$233.60
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 1:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
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