TE Connectivity (TEL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TEL - TE Connectivity plc

WHOLESALE-ELECTRONIC PARTS & EQUIPMENT, NEC
$214.09
0.43 (0.20%) ▲
5d: +1.83%
30d: +0.29%
90d: +7.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026 5d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 16, 2026 at $212.64 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 3.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
TEL is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; TEL has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$344.13
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.68
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $214.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $207.85 to $217.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $218.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: TEL scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $251.79 (+17.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $207.85 - $217.99
Company Quality Score 67/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 81.0%

All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($251.79)
  • BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $207.85 - $217.99
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $207.31
Resistance Level $218.52
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.50
Wall Street Target $251.79 (+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 19.2%
Profit Margin 15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History -2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical 16.5 vs 17.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -2.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $209.38 (-2%)
2-Year Target $204.77 (-4%)
3-Year Target $200.27 (-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→18) $213.58 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.2%) $374.16 (+75%)
Base: (SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 13.2%) $310.92 (+45%)
Bear: (PE: 14.0, Growth: 13.2%) $264.28 (+23%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.21
Bull Case $298.62 (+40%)
Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case $271.48 (+27%)
Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case $145.29 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 17.6
Stabilization Target: $228.32 (+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +6.6%
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Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced TEL Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TEL price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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