TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$200.36
1.45 (0.73%)
▲
5d:
+1.48%
30d:
-5.0%
90d:
-12.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
8d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$338.42
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$210.13
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $200.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $198.85 to $214.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7150.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $205.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.11 (+30.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $205.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.11 (+30.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$198.85 -
$214.13
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TEL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($262.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$198.85 -
$214.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$191.66
Resistance Level
$205.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.88
Wall Street Target
$262.11
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7150.0%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 18.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$191.34
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$182.73
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$174.51
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$200.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$388.30
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$283.07
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$240.61
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.79
Bull Case
$282.04
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.9%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$256.40
(+28%)
Market implied 28.9%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$135.26
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$229.67
(+14.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced TEL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TEL price and gamma walls.