TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$208.65
-0.76 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
+2.96%
30d:
-2.99%
90d:
-1.88%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TEL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$342.36
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$212.58
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $208.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $203.16 to $214.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $212.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TEL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.79 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $212.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TEL scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.79 (+18.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$203.16 -
$214.74
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($246.79)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$203.16 -
$214.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$199.28
Resistance Level
$212.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.17
Wall Street Target
$246.79
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.2%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 17.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$195.51
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$189.25
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$208.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.7%)
$373.53
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 12.7%)
$298.51
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 12.7%)
$253.73
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.58
Bull Case
$281.00
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$255.45
(+22%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$142.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$229.73
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 5:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
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