APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$165.75
-4.21 (-2.48%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.85%
30d:
+5.55%
90d:
+32.98%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $169.18 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026
Strength: 9.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: APH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$290.27
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$180.24
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $165.75, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.57 to $167.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $155.36, while resistance sits at $176.33.
Market Sentiment: APH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.06 (+19.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $155.36, while resistance sits at $176.33.
Market Sentiment: APH scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.06 (+19.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$152.57 -
$167.29
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
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Holding APH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($198.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.57 -
$167.29
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$155.36
Resistance Level
$176.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.71
Wall Street Target
$198.06
(+19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.3%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.7 vs 28.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.61
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$155.63
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$150.81
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â28)
$165.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.7, Growth: 21.3%)
$295.64
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$232.66
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$197.76
(+19%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$296.91
(+79%)
Analyst growth 58.8%, PE expands to 46.1
Base Case
$269.92
(+63%)
Market implied 58.8%, PE stable at 41.9
Bear Case
$115.57
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.7 to 28.2
Stabilization Target:
$181.83
(+9.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 10:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APH price and gamma walls.
