APH Amphenol Corporation ELECTRONIC CONNECTORS

Amphenol (APH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$79.95
-0.76 (-0.94%) ▼
5d: -5.04% 30d: -7.24% 90d: -5.92%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (82%)
Quality Score
64/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$76.46 – $85.70
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
22.1x STRETCHED
vs 16.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$106.97
+33.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$71.39 / $85.66
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: APH trades at premium valuation expecting 11.2% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
APH is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; APH has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-10.

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $79.50 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026

Strength: 4.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.56
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $79.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.46 to $85.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.1) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $71.39, while resistance sits at $85.66.

Market Sentiment: APH scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.97 (+33.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $76.46 - $85.70
Company Quality Score 64/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 82.4%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $76.46 - $85.70
Current vs Trading Range FAIR
Support Level $71.39
Resistance Level $85.66
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 33.8% below Wall St target ($106.97)
  • NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.2% growth which is achievable
  • BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
  • CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.0% 5-day decline

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 22.06
Wall Street Target $106.97 (+33.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 65.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 61.2%
Profit Margin 17.9%
Valuation Premium vs History +11.2% premium
PE vs Historical 22.1 vs 16.1 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +11.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $88.90 (+11%)
2-Year Target $98.86 (+24%)
3-Year Target $109.93 (+38%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 22→16) PE COMPRESSION $80.24 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 27.9%) $167.10 (+109%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.9%) $150.46 (+88%)
Bear: (PE: 16.1, Growth: 27.9%) $121.97 (+53%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.30
Bull Case $139.91 (+75%)
Analyst growth 57.6%, PE expands to 38.6
Base Case $127.20 (+59%)
Market implied 57.6%, PE stable at 35.1
Bear Case $54.88 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (APH)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Investor sentiment on $APH remains bullish despite a recent decline in share price following Q3 results. The latest article highlights strong demand from AI data centers and power utilities, but also mentions concerns over slower organic sales growth, supply chain constraints, and inflationary costs.
Key Retail Themes: Strong demand from AI data centers and power utilities Slower organic sales growth and supply chain constraints Inflationary costs
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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