APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$159.06
-3.18 (-1.96%)
▼
5d:
-3.36%
30d:
+3.24%
90d:
+15.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.12
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $159.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.26 to $166.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.7) is in line with its historical norms (28.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $153.15, while resistance sits at $178.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.67 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $153.15, while resistance sits at $178.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $184.67 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$149.26 -
$166.76
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($184.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.26 -
$166.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$153.15
Resistance Level
$178.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.73
Wall Street Target
$184.67
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.7 vs 28.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.47
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$155.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$154.34
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→29)
$158.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$266.10
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$208.99
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 18.7%)
$177.64
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.57
Bull Case
$286.73
(+80%)
Analyst growth 60.7%, PE expands to 50.0
Base Case
$260.66
(+64%)
Market implied 60.7%, PE stable at 45.5
Bear Case
$110.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.7 to 28.5
Stabilization Target:
$163.47
(+2.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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