APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$160.70
0.88 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
+5.26%
30d:
-6.69%
90d:
+9.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$290.28
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$180.24
10.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $160.70, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.28 to $166.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.9) compared to its historical average (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 59.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $139.67, while resistance sits at $167.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.06 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $139.67, while resistance sits at $167.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.06 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$152.28 -
$166.10
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($198.06)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.28 -
$166.10
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.67
Resistance Level
$167.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.92
Wall Street Target
$198.06
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
59.3%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.9 vs 28.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.95
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$147.48
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$141.29
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$161.01
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$286.63
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 21.3%)
$238.41
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 21.3%)
$202.65
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.00
Bull Case
$283.39
(+76%)
Analyst growth 61.2%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$257.63
(+60%)
Market implied 61.2%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$108.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.9 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$183.12
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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