ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$28.49
0.75 (2.70%)
▲
5d:
+2.7%
30d:
+10.99%
90d:
+17.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARQT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARQT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.26
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $28.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.53 to $27.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.1) compared to its historical average (34.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.25, while resistance sits at $29.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.25, while resistance sits at $29.84.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+21.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$24.53 -
$27.85
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($34.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.53 -
$27.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.25
Resistance Level
$29.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.14
Wall Street Target
$34.63
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.1 vs 34.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.08
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.77
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→35)
$28.83
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.1, Growth: 554.0%)
$96.15
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 554.0%)
$80.36
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 554.0%)
$68.31
(+140%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 34.9
Stabilization Target:
$39.55
(+38.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
3687 shares
2026-03-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
