Is ARQT stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ARQT is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ARQT stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARQT to be between $23.84 and $26.37. The current price is $25.16.

What is the analyst price target for ARQT?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARQT is $37.00. This implies a potential upside of 47.1% from current levels.

Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$25.16

-0.13 (-0.51%) ▼

5d: -6.54%

30d: +5.49%

90d: -3.49%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ARQT Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 27, 2026 23d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 29, 2026 at $26.75 · last confirmed Oct 1, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$66.21

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$41.11

38.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $25.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.84 to $26.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.5) compared to its historical average (31.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.00 (+47.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $23.84 - $26.37

Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 72.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 47.1% below Wall St target ($37.00)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.5%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $23.84 - $26.37

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $25.01

Resistance Level $28.29

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.50

Wall Street Target $37.00 (+47.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 59.3%

Profit Margin 6.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -16.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.5 vs 31.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -16.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $22.64 (-10%)

2-Year Target $20.38 (-19%)

3-Year Target $18.34 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→31) $30.93 (+23%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.4, Growth: 216.3%) $93.64 (+272%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 216.3%) $84.92 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 15.7, Growth: 216.3%) $72.18 (+187%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 26.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.95

Bull Case $30.38 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.7

Base Case $25.16 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 26.4

Bear Case $19.25 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.5 to 31.2

Stabilization Target: $42.43 (+68.6%)

PE Expansion Potential: +68.6%

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM

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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies

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