ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$25.08
-0.27 (-1.07%)
▼
5d:
-4.24%
30d:
-8.23%
90d:
+19.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.40
36.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $25.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.88 to $27.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (33.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+47.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+47.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.88 -
$27.83
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARQT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.0% below Wall St target ($36.88)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.88 -
$27.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.53
Resistance Level
$27.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.24
Wall Street Target
$36.88
(+47.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.3%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 33.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.57
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.31
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.28
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→33)
$31.54
(+26%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 216.6%)
$88.28
(+252%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 216.6%)
$84.64
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 216.6%)
$71.95
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (60x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 60.24 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.42
Bull Case
$30.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 63.3
Base Case
$25.08
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 60.2
Bear Case
$19.19
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 54.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 33.2
Stabilization Target:
$43.27
(+72.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+72.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
3687 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
