ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$26.27
-0.39 (-1.46%)
▼
5d:
+2.7%
30d:
+25.04%
90d:
+17.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.94
24.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $26.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.42 to $24.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.7) compared to its historical average (36.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.72, while resistance sits at $27.17.
Market Sentiment: ARQT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+31.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $21.72, while resistance sits at $27.17.
Market Sentiment: ARQT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+31.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.42 -
$24.83
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARQT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.8% below Wall St target ($34.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.42 -
$24.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.72
Resistance Level
$27.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.73
Wall Street Target
$34.63
(+31.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 36.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.28
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→36)
$30.58
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 371.7%)
$88.66
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 371.7%)
$84.95
(+223%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 371.7%)
$72.21
(+175%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.7 to 36.3
Stabilization Target:
$41.95
(+59.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
3687 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
