ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$28.18
-0.20 (-0.70%)
âŧ
5d:
+4.37%
30d:
+6.7%
90d:
+7.6%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect ARQT Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$25.91 â $32.07
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
25.9x
CHEAP
vs 30.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$40.38
+42.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$25.23 / $34.80
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ARQT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $31.67 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.08
14.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $28.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.91 to $32.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.9) compared to its historical average (30.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.23, while resistance sits at $34.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.38 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.23, while resistance sits at $34.80.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.38 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$25.91 -
$32.07
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$25.91 -
$32.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$25.23
Resistance Level
$34.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARQT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.3% below Wall St target ($40.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.93
Wall Street Target
$40.38
(+42.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.9 vs 30.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.02
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$25.72
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$24.49
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â30)
$28.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.9, Growth: 234.5%)
$95.78
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 234.5%)
$73.35
(+159%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 234.5%)
$62.35
(+120%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 31.85 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.89
Bull Case
$34.27
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$28.38
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 31.9
Bear Case
$21.71
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.9 to 30.1
Stabilization Target:
$32.94
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ARQT)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) reported Q3 earnings missing estimates but revenue surpassed, causing a significant stock price increase. The company has outperformed consensus revenue estimates in the last four quarters.
Key Retail Themes:
Company's financial performance
Investor sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
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