Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$23.89
0.51 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+0.95%
30d:
-9.11%
90d:
-2.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARQT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARQT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.40
39.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $23.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.04 to $26.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (32.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARQT scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+54.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARQT scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.88 (+54.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.04 -
$26.19
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARQT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.4% below Wall St target ($36.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.04 -
$26.19
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.21
Resistance Level
$25.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.33
Wall Street Target
$36.88
(+54.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.3%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 32.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$19.35
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$17.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→32)
$30.50
(+28%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 216.6%)
$88.72
(+271%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 216.6%)
$80.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 216.6%)
$68.52
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 23.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.00
Bull Case
$28.84
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$23.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$18.27
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 32.1
Stabilization Target:
$41.84
(+75.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
