ARQT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARQT - Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. Common Stock
$25.93
-0.93 (-3.46%)
▼
5d:
-6.86%
30d:
+0.46%
90d:
+11.05%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARQT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.26
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARQT is currently trading at $25.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.52 to $28.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (34.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARQT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.62 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$26.52 -
$28.15
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARQT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($34.62)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.52 -
$28.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.69
Resistance Level
$28.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.70
Wall Street Target
$34.63
(+28.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
60.1%
Profit Margin
-0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 34.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→34)
$28.34
(+6%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 541.4%)
$90.65
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 541.4%)
$79.29
(+195%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 541.4%)
$67.40
(+151%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 34.3
Stabilization Target:
$38.87
(+44.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARQT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard G Welgus
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Larry Todd Edwards
SELL
3687 shares
2026-03-02
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Advanced ARQT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARQT price and gamma walls.
