AWR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWR - American States Water Company
$88.63
-0.68 (-0.76%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
+1.67%
90d:
+16.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AWR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AWR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.46
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWR is currently trading at $88.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.81 to $88.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.3) compared to its historical average (21.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $90.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AWR scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$85.81 -
$88.68
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
36.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($84.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.81 -
$88.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.68
Resistance Level
$90.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.32
Wall Street Target
$84.00
(-5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.8%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.82
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$95.13
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$98.55
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â21)
PE COMPRESSION
$88.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 3.3%)
$97.59
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$83.97
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$71.38
(-20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$102.00
(+15%)
Analyst growth 3.8%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$92.73
(+5%)
Market implied 3.8%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$60.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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