BCRX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

BCRX - BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
$9.55
-0.11 (-1.14%) â–ŧ
5d: -1.95%
30d: +1.81%
90d: +14.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $9.87 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: BCRX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -12.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.39
45.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: BCRX is currently trading at $9.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.14 to $9.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1400% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, BCRX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: BCRX scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.82 (+118.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $9.14 - $9.93
Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 50.0%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 118.0% below Wall St target ($20.82)
  • WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $9.14 - $9.93
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $9.28
Resistance Level $10.68
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.16
Wall Street Target $20.82 (+118.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 33.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 1400.0%
Profit Margin -40.9%
Valuation Discount vs History -12.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.2 vs 15.3 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -12.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $8.60 (-10%)
2-Year Target $7.74 (-19%)
3-Year Target $6.96 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→15) $10.48 (+10%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 26.2%) $37.90 (+297%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 26.2%) $19.18 (+101%)
Bear: (PE: 8.6, Growth: 26.2%) $16.31 (+71%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 15.3
Stabilization Target: $14.38 (+50.6%)
PE Expansion Potential: +50.6%
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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alane P Barnes SELL 150000 shares 2026-03-16

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Advanced BCRX Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BCRX price and gamma walls.

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