BFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$152.76
0.44 (0.29%)
â˛
5d:
-3.32%
30d:
+3.64%
90d:
+7.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$269.49
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$167.33
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $152.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $148.54 to $156.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $148.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $148.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$148.54 -
$156.26
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$148.54 -
$156.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.91
Resistance Level
$159.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.80
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
37.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.60
(0%)
2-Year Target
$152.45
(0%)
3-Year Target
$152.30
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â13)
$153.44
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$413.95
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$264.09
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$224.48
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.75
Bull Case
$257.91
(+69%)
Analyst growth 53.9%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$234.47
(+54%)
Market implied 53.9%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$103.57
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$153.90
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
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