Bank First (BFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$150.46
-0.40 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+2.77%
90d:
-5.02%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$146.03 – $150.15
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.5x
FAIR
vs 12.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$163.00
+8.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$147.24 / $153.86
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$300.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$186.66
19.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $150.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.03 to $150.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $147.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BFC scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $147.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BFC scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$146.03 -
$150.15
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$146.03 -
$150.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$147.24
Resistance Level
$153.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.48
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.4%
Profit Margin
36.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$148.06
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$146.88
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$150.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.1%)
$468.96
(+212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 25.1%)
$294.60
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 25.1%)
$250.41
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.02
Bull Case
$249.54
(+66%)
Analyst growth 50.4%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$226.85
(+51%)
Market implied 50.4%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$102.58
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$154.37
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (BFC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Aug 22, 2025
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on BFC are bullish (sentiment score +0.30) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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