Bank First (BFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$152.60
3.10 (2.07%)
▲
5d:
+0.31%
30d:
-0.67%
90d:
+0.85%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$267.40
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$166.04
8.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $152.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.29 to $154.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $153.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $153.03. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$150.29 -
$154.27
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.29 -
$154.27
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$146.71
Resistance Level
$153.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.79
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
37.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.45
(0%)
2-Year Target
$152.29
(0%)
3-Year Target
$152.14
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$152.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$420.76
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$263.83
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$224.25
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.73
Bull Case
$253.80
(+66%)
Analyst growth 54.3%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$230.73
(+51%)
Market implied 54.3%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$101.66
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$152.70
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
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