Bank First (BFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$154.41
-0.83 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
-0.27%
30d:
-1.62%
90d:
+7.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$269.49
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$167.33
7.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $154.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.23 to $156.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$152.23 -
$156.50
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.23 -
$156.50
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.32
Resistance Level
$157.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.94
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.7%
Profit Margin
37.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.72
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$155.03
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$155.34
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$154.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$416.01
(+169%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$266.95
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$226.91
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.77
Bull Case
$262.19
(+70%)
Analyst growth 53.5%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$238.35
(+54%)
Market implied 53.5%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$105.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
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