BFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$152.74
1.45 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
+1.3%
30d:
-0.16%
90d:
+5.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$267.40
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$166.04
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $152.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.12 to $151.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 29.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $154.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$146.12 -
$151.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($163.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.12 -
$151.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.97
Resistance Level
$154.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.80
Wall Street Target
$163.00
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.9%
Profit Margin
37.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.59
(0%)
2-Year Target
$152.43
(0%)
3-Year Target
$152.28
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$152.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$427.56
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$264.07
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$224.46
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.67
Bull Case
$258.85
(+70%)
Analyst growth 55.5%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$235.32
(+54%)
Market implied 55.5%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$102.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
Steven M Eldred
SELL
8000 shares
2026-02-11
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