BFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFC - Bank First Corporation Common Stock
$146.94
-0.41 (-0.28%)
▼
5d:
-2.89%
30d:
+2.16%
90d:
+2.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 17, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$282.45
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$175.38
16.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFC is currently trading at $146.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.21 to $148.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $144.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$142.21 -
$148.94
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($161.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$142.21 -
$148.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$144.45
Resistance Level
$154.29
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.21
Wall Street Target
$161.00
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
37.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.30
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$141.70
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$139.15
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$146.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.8%)
$472.99
(+222%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 21.8%)
$265.26
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 21.8%)
$225.47
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.19
Bull Case
$271.19
(+85%)
Analyst growth 67.3%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case
$246.54
(+68%)
Market implied 67.3%, PE stable at 20.5
Bear Case
$100.20
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$155.19
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd A Sprang
BUY
450 shares
2026-04-22
Michael S Stayer-Suprick
BUY
225 shares
2026-04-21
Steven M Eldred
SELL
8000 shares
2026-02-11
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