BSRR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$40.92
-0.16 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
+0.15%
30d:
+1.84%
90d:
+12.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.88
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $40.92, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.55 to $41.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$39.55 -
$41.00
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.55 -
$41.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.72
Resistance Level
$42.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.59
Wall Street Target
$41.50
(+1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.7%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.31
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$43.58
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$44.89
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.1%)
$95.38
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$46.39
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.1%)
$39.43
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.49
Bull Case
$49.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 11.1%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$45.30
(+10%)
Market implied 11.1%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$27.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie G Castle
SELL
250 shares
2026-02-13
James C Holly
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-05
Julie G Castle
SELL
750 shares
2026-02-05
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