Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$39.65
-0.18 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
+2.03%
30d:
-0.9%
90d:
-4.96%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BSRR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BSRR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.51
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $39.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.14 to $40.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BSRR scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $38.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BSRR scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.14 -
$40.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with -3.2% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.14 -
$40.23
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.63
Resistance Level
$40.69
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.44
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.24
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$40.85
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$41.46
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$92.05
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.9%)
$48.39
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$41.13
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.45
Bull Case
$48.23
(+22%)
Analyst growth 10.1%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$43.85
(+11%)
Market implied 10.1%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$27.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 11:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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