Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$40.73
-0.14 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+0.05%
30d:
-0.02%
90d:
+1.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BSRR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BSRR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.49
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $40.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.78 to $40.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$39.78 -
$40.84
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with -3.2% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (46/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.78 -
$40.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.16
Resistance Level
$41.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.76
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.87
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$43.04
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$44.25
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.6%)
$92.43
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$49.33
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$41.93
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.44
Bull Case
$49.45
(+21%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$44.96
(+10%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$27.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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