Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$42.14
+0.22 (+0.52%)
â˛
5d:
+0.31%
30d:
+6.68%
90d:
+3.44%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (61%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$39.34 â $42.16
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.7x
FAIR
vs 10.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$45.63
+8.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$41.12 / $43.56
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: BSRR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.92
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $42.14, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.34 to $42.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $41.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $41.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$39.34 -
$42.16
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$39.34 -
$42.16
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$41.12
Resistance Level
$43.56
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.67
Wall Street Target
$45.63
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.9%
Profit Margin
32.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.02
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$43.93
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$44.85
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.02
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.9%)
$88.07
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 3.9%)
$47.33
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$40.23
(-5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$47.16
(+12%)
Analyst growth 2.3%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$42.88
(+2%)
Market implied 2.3%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$28.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 10, 2026 11:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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