BSRR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$39.92
0.25 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
-2.66%
30d:
-4.31%
90d:
+3.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BSRR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BSRR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.49
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $39.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.23 to $41.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.23 -
$41.68
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with -3.2% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (52/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.23 -
$41.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.28
Resistance Level
$42.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.55
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.84
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$41.78
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$42.74
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.11
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$91.97
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 6.6%)
$48.35
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 6.6%)
$41.09
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.40
Bull Case
$48.57
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$44.15
(+11%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$26.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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