BSRR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$39.31
-0.20 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
-3.37%
30d:
+2.74%
90d:
+21.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.40
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $39.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.92 to $39.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.26, while resistance sits at $41.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.26, while resistance sits at $41.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$37.92 -
$39.72
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.92 -
$39.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.26
Resistance Level
$41.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.14
Wall Street Target
$40.25
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.7%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.02
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$40.74
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$41.47
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.1%)
$95.38
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 4.1%)
$44.39
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$37.73
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.42
Bull Case
$49.28
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$44.80
(+14%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$26.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie G Castle
SELL
250 shares
2026-02-13
James C Holly
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-05
Julie G Castle
SELL
750 shares
2026-02-05
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