Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$39.20
0.15 (0.38%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
-0.56%
90d:
-4.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BSRR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BSRR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.98
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $39.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.45 to $40.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BSRR scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BSRR scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.45 -
$40.65
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with -3.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.45 -
$40.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.43
Resistance Level
$40.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.36
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
29.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.71
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.23
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$40.75
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.6%)
$93.49
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 6.6%)
$47.47
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$40.35
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.40
Bull Case
$47.81
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.3%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$43.46
(+11%)
Market implied 11.3%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$26.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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