CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.55
-0.17 (-1.59%)
▼
5d:
-4.52%
30d:
-1.22%
90d:
-5.89%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.96
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.69 to $10.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.69 -
$10.97
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.69 -
$10.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.49
Resistance Level
$11.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.43
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.31
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.07
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.84
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.4%)
$35.22
(+234%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 4.4%)
$12.01
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 4.4%)
$10.21
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$23.49
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$21.35
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$7.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.36
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
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