Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$11.24
-0.16 (-1.40%)
▼
5d:
+3.21%
30d:
+8.29%
90d:
-0.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (24%)
Quality Score
33/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$10.27 – $11.03
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.7x
FAIR
vs 7.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.21
+7.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$10.61 / $11.44
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.61
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $11.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.27 to $11.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $11.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $11.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.27 -
$11.03
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.27 -
$11.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$10.61
Resistance Level
$11.44
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.21)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.74
Wall Street Target
$12.21
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.35
(0%)
2-Year Target
$11.31
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$11.26
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$11.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.9%)
$31.83
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 2.9%)
$12.41
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 2.9%)
$10.55
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$25.12
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$22.84
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.4
Bear Case
$7.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$11.49
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CGBD)
Neutral
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A financial analyst with 496 followers on StockTwits expresses a bullish outlook on $CGBD, initiating a small position despite the risk. No recent news articles were available for analysis.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Initiation of a new position
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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