Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.65
-0.12 (-1.11%)
▼
5d:
-5.33%
30d:
-7.87%
90d:
+1.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.84
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.08 to $11.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+16.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.08 -
$11.67
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.36)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.08 -
$11.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.62
Resistance Level
$11.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.44
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+16.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.44
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$10.23
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$10.02
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$29.18
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$10.64
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$9.05
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.53
Bull Case
$23.69
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$21.54
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$7.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.31
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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