CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.26
0.27 (2.70%)
▲
5d:
+0.49%
30d:
-5.79%
90d:
-14.21%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CGBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CGBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.46
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.17 to $10.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.95, while resistance sits at $10.57.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.29 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.95, while resistance sits at $10.57.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.29 (+19.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.17 -
$10.69
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.17 -
$10.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.95
Resistance Level
$10.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.34
Wall Street Target
$12.29
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.01
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.77
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.54
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.1%)
$32.67
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 4.1%)
$11.57
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$9.84
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$21.94
(+114%)
Analyst growth 99.6%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$19.94
(+94%)
Market implied 99.6%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$6.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.04
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 1:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:48 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
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