CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$11.35
0.02 (0.18%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
+13.39%
90d:
+5.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CGBD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.59
Based on 1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $11.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.15 to $10.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.15 -
$10.97
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -7.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.15 -
$10.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.88
Resistance Level
$11.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.14
Wall Street Target
$12.29
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.47
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.60
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$11.73
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -1.9%)
$26.43
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: -1.9%)
$10.73
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -1.9%)
$9.12
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$24.93
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$22.66
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$7.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
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