Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$11.37
-0.01 (-0.09%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.73%
30d:
+2.43%
90d:
+4.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CGBD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CGBD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.84
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $11.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.02 to $11.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $11.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.02 -
$11.67
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -7.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.02 -
$11.67
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.34
Resistance Level
$12.10
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.94
Wall Street Target
$12.50
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.38
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$11.39
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$11.40
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.34
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$28.86
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$11.36
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$9.66
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$25.04
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$22.76
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$7.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
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