CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.42
-0.06 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
+0.29%
30d:
-4.4%
90d:
-5.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CGBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CGBD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.33
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.49 to $10.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+18.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+18.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.49 -
$10.92
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.49 -
$10.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.27
Resistance Level
$11.08
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.42
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.19
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.97
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$9.75
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.37
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.5%)
$33.88
(+225%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 3.5%)
$11.55
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 3.5%)
$9.82
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$23.17
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$21.06
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$7.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.09
(+6.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
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