Carlyle Secured Lending (CGBD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.28
0.20 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-8.38%
90d:
+2.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.84
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.35 to $11.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $10.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $10.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.35 -
$11.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($12.36)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.35 -
$11.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.00
Resistance Level
$10.77
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.18
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.67
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$9.38
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$28.41
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$10.27
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$8.73
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$22.18
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$20.16
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$6.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.31
(+10.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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