CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$86.32
-0.03 (-0.03%)
▼
5d:
-6.48%
30d:
+0.92%
90d:
+2.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.55
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $86.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.52 to $89.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.25 (+59.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.25 (+59.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$85.52 -
$89.01
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.0% below Wall St target ($137.25)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.52 -
$89.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.12
Resistance Level
$94.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.88
Wall Street Target
$137.25
(+59.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 13.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.61
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$79.06
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$75.66
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$86.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.8%)
$187.56
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 5.8%)
$102.27
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 5.8%)
$86.93
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$129.97
(+51%)
Analyst growth 33.9%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$118.16
(+37%)
Market implied 33.9%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$60.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$98.85
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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