Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$84.45
1.66 (2.01%)
▲
5d:
+2.8%
30d:
+4.96%
90d:
-2.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.94
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.96
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $84.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.94 to $82.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.33 (+49.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $84.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.33 (+49.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$76.94 -
$82.65
Company Quality Score
29/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.6% below Wall St target ($126.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 29/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.94 -
$82.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.07
Resistance Level
$84.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$126.33
(+49.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.66
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$78.97
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$76.36
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$84.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$181.01
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 7.6%)
$105.34
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 7.6%)
$89.54
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.86
Bull Case
$113.56
(+35%)
Analyst growth 24.7%, PE expands to 15.5
Base Case
$103.23
(+22%)
Market implied 24.7%, PE stable at 14.1
Bear Case
$56.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$93.53
(+10.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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