CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$93.71
0.59 (0.63%)
▲
5d:
+3.18%
30d:
+11.89%
90d:
+9.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.10
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $93.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.98 to $90.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.64 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.64 (+40.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$83.98 -
$90.12
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.5% below Wall St target ($131.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.98 -
$90.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.69
Resistance Level
$93.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.77
Wall Street Target
$131.64
(+40.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.77
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$91.85
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$90.93
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$94.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.5%)
$178.11
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$113.31
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$96.31
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.98
Bull Case
$125.72
(+34%)
Analyst growth 22.7%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$114.29
(+22%)
Market implied 22.7%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$63.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$96.88
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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