CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$83.75
-1.77 (-2.07%)
▼
5d:
-6.15%
30d:
-5.54%
90d:
-4.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.18
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $83.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.41 to $89.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $83.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.00 (+63.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $83.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $137.00 (+63.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.41 -
$89.71
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.6% below Wall St target ($137.00)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.41 -
$89.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.21
Resistance Level
$91.53
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.60
Wall Street Target
$137.00
(+63.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.73
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$75.90
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$72.26
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$83.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$183.40
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 5.2%)
$97.64
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.2%)
$83.00
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.43
Bull Case
$125.12
(+49%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$113.75
(+36%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$58.15
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$96.78
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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