Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$83.86
1.11 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-7.11%
30d:
-5.28%
90d:
-3.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.75
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $83.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.54 to $90.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (13.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.58 (+55.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.58 (+55.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.54 -
$90.70
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.7% below Wall St target ($130.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.54 -
$90.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.98
Resistance Level
$91.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.32
Wall Street Target
$130.58
(+55.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 13.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.92
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$76.16
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$72.58
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$83.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.0%)
$183.07
(+118%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$102.79
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$87.37
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.80
Bull Case
$116.21
(+39%)
Analyst growth 27.7%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$105.65
(+26%)
Market implied 27.7%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$56.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 13.1
Stabilization Target:
$97.01
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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