Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$76.05
1.23 (1.64%)
▲
5d:
-4.66%
30d:
-14.72%
90d:
-14.78%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When CHDN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.82
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.50
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $76.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.91 to $88.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.83 (+72.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $130.83 (+72.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$79.91 -
$88.84
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.0% below Wall St target ($130.83)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 30% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.91 -
$88.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.98
Resistance Level
$83.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.27
Wall Street Target
$130.83
(+72.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 12.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.50
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$65.35
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$60.58
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$76.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.0%)
$185.16
(+144%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 7.0%)
$93.22
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 7.0%)
$79.23
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.82
Bull Case
$104.72
(+38%)
Analyst growth 27.2%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$95.20
(+25%)
Market implied 27.2%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$50.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$95.52
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Gambling Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Gambling by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DKNG
DraftKings Inc |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$35 | 45 HOLD |
|
FLUT
Flutter Entertainment plc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$136 | 59 HOLD |
|
GAMB
Gambling.com Group Ltd |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$5 | 57 HOLD |
|
RSI
Rush Street Interactive … |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$36 | 50 HOLD |
|
SGHC
SGHC Limited |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$20 | 52 HOLD |
