CHDN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHDN - Churchill Downs Inc
$83.36
-0.94 (-1.12%)
▼
5d:
-5.46%
30d:
-8.3%
90d:
-15.5%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHDN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.24
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $83.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $83.39 to $88.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.40, while resistance sits at $90.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.58 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $79.40, while resistance sits at $90.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $135.58 (+60.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$83.39 -
$88.70
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.8% below Wall St target ($135.58)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$83.39 -
$88.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.40
Resistance Level
$90.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$135.58
(+60.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.4%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.51
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$76.88
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$73.42
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$84.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.2%)
$175.73
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 5.2%)
$98.16
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$83.43
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.08
Bull Case
$130.36
(+55%)
Analyst growth 43.3%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$118.51
(+41%)
Market implied 43.3%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$56.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$96.83
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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