CHDN
Churchill Downs Inc
SERVICES-RACING, INCLUDING TRACK OPERATION
Churchill Downs (CHDN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$99.62
-1.02 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
+24.49%
90d:
+9.69%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (30%)
Quality Score
33/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$78.56 – $96.09
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.5x
FAIR
vs 12.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$126.83
+26.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$90.55 / $102.86
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CHDN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.58
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHDN is currently trading at $99.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.56 to $96.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $90.55, while resistance sits at $102.86.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHDN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $90.55, while resistance sits at $102.86.
Market Sentiment: CHDN scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.83 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$78.56 -
$96.09
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$78.56 -
$96.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$90.55
Resistance Level
$102.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($126.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.53
Wall Street Target
$126.83
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
111.6%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.65
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$104.71
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$106.80
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.04
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.4%)
$183.26
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$124.85
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 7.4%)
$106.12
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.47
Bull Case
$128.94
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$117.22
(+17%)
Market implied 15.0%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$69.33
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CHDN)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Churchill Downs (CHDN) reported Q3 earnings with a surprise of +0.26% on revenue and beating EPS estimates by 8.8%. The latest article provides a detailed analysis of key metrics, showing positive changes in net revenue for gaming and wagering services & solutions, while adjusted EBITDA for wagering services & solutions and all other segments saw slight declines.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings beat
positive changes in net revenue
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHDN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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