CHMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$75.05
0.15 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
+0.97%
30d:
+3.65%
90d:
+26.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.71
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $75.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.53 to $75.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (8.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$71.53 -
$75.04
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($72.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.0% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.53 -
$75.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.22
Resistance Level
$76.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.01
Wall Street Target
$72.75
(-2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
19.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 8.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.14
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$85.75
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$91.76
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$75.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.6%)
$186.53
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 4.6%)
$85.76
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 4.6%)
$70.23
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$162.95
(+118%)
Analyst growth 97.4%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$148.14
(+98%)
Market implied 97.4%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$51.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert H Dalrymple
SELL
2833 shares
2026-02-26
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
748 shares
2026-02-04
Daniel D Fariello
SELL
242 shares
2026-02-03
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