CHMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$81.62
0.13 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.39%
30d:
+9.56%
90d:
+23.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CHMG trades at premium valuation expecting 7.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.42
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $81.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.06 to $79.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.80, while resistance sits at $84.65.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $72.80, while resistance sits at $84.65.
Market Sentiment: CHMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$74.06 -
$79.79
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($83.50)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.06 -
$79.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.80
Resistance Level
$84.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.27
Wall Street Target
$83.50
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
241.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 8.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.42
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$93.62
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$100.27
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.04
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.1%)
$191.27
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$94.73
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$77.50
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.96
Bull Case
$102.39
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$93.08
(+14%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$55.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 1:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert H Dalrymple
SELL
2833 shares
2026-02-26
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