Chemung Financial (CHMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$86.29
+0.00 (+0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
+6.66%
90d:
+3.75%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (47%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$80.57 – $86.00
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.2x
FAIR
vs 8.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$92.35
+7.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$83.83 / $89.34
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: CHMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$135.49
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $86.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.57 to $86.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.83. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$80.57 -
$86.00
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$80.57 -
$86.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$83.83
Resistance Level
$89.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.35)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.23
Wall Street Target
$92.35
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
62.2%
Profit Margin
31.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.35
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$94.59
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$99.04
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$168.62
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$86.84
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 21.4%)
$73.82
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.97
Bull Case
$100.47
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.8%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$91.34
(+6%)
Market implied 5.8%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$58.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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