Chemung Financial (CHMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMG - Chemung Financial Corp
$81.65
0.45 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
+3.12%
30d:
-0.39%
90d:
+9.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.10
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMG is currently trading at $81.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.20 to $82.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMG scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$80.20 -
$82.97
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.20 -
$82.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.95
Resistance Level
$81.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.92
Wall Street Target
$89.30
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
241.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.7%
Profit Margin
28.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.92
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$88.31
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$91.85
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.47
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.1%)
$206.58
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.1%)
$103.20
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$87.72
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.96
Bull Case
$105.62
(+29%)
Analyst growth 18.2%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$96.02
(+18%)
Market implied 18.2%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$55.22
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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