CSWC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$24.96
0.28 (1.13%)
▲
5d:
+0.32%
30d:
+6.44%
90d:
+8.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.44
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $24.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.73 to $24.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.73 -
$24.91
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.73 -
$24.91
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.45
Resistance Level
$25.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.96
Wall Street Target
$25.30
(+1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.61
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$26.27
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$26.96
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -4.9%)
$39.36
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: -4.9%)
$21.49
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: -4.9%)
$18.26
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.82
Bull Case
$33.98
(+36%)
Analyst growth 25.2%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$30.89
(+24%)
Market implied 25.2%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$16.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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