Capital Southwest (CSWC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$24.19
0.09 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-1.47%
30d:
-3.66%
90d:
+3.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CSWC is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.66
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $24.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.45 to $25.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.45 -
$25.24
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.45 -
$25.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.89
Resistance Level
$25.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$25.30
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.50
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.82
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$25.15
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.9%)
$39.56
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: -4.9%)
$20.82
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: -4.9%)
$17.70
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.80
Bull Case
$33.55
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.6%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$30.50
(+26%)
Market implied 26.6%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$16.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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