Capital Southwest (CSWC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$23.71
+0.10 (+0.42%)
▲
5d:
-0.34%
30d:
+0.89%
90d:
-6.1%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$22.73 – $23.67
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.4x
FAIR
vs 10.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$25.08
+5.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$22.60 / $24.00
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CSWC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.66
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $23.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.73 to $23.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $24.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.73 -
$23.67
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.73 -
$23.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$22.60
Resistance Level
$24.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 17.9% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.41
Wall Street Target
$25.08
(+5.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.9%
Profit Margin
43.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.88
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.04
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$24.21
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.9%)
$38.95
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -4.9%)
$20.41
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$17.35
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.70
Bull Case
$34.81
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$31.64
(+34%)
Market implied 34.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$16.05
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (CSWC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding $CSWC is driven by a user expressing a long-term bullish outlook on the stock. No news articles specifically mention $CSWC.
Key Retail Themes:
Long-term bullish sentiment toward $CSWC
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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