Capital Southwest (CSWC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$23.52
0.22 (0.94%)
▲
5d:
+1.69%
30d:
-4.93%
90d:
-1.09%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CSWC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CSWC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.66
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $23.52, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.28 to $24.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CSWC scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CSWC scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$23.28 -
$24.94
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.30)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 9.1% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.28 -
$24.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.77
Resistance Level
$23.61
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$25.30
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.8%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.59
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$23.66
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$23.73
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -4.9%)
$40.01
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: -4.9%)
$20.25
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$17.21
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$32.26
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$29.33
(+25%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$15.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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