CSWC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CSWC - Capital Southwest Corp
$23.59
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
-1.87%
90d:
-1.71%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CSWC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CSWC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.44
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CSWC is currently trading at $23.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.45 to $23.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CSWC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.45 -
$23.97
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.45 -
$23.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.14
Resistance Level
$24.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.35
Wall Street Target
$24.90
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
28.7%
Profit Margin
48.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.80
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.02
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$24.23
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -4.9%)
$40.66
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -4.9%)
$20.31
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: -4.9%)
$17.26
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.90
Bull Case
$31.12
(+32%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 13.7
Base Case
$28.29
(+20%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$16.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CSWC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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