FDUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDUS - Fidus Investment Corp.
$18.29
0.35 (1.95%)
▲
5d:
-1.72%
30d:
-2.4%
90d:
+3.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FDUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.08
Based on -2.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDUS is currently trading at $18.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.35 to $18.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+17.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+17.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.35 -
$18.89
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.35 -
$18.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.25
Resistance Level
$19.16
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.37
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.2%
Profit Margin
49.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$17.69
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$18.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -7.9%)
$33.22
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -7.9%)
$14.29
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -7.9%)
$12.15
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$17.05
(-7%)
Analyst growth -13.6%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$15.50
(-15%)
Market implied -13.6%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$12.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 9.7
Stabilization Target:
$18.94
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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