Fidus Investment (FDUS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDUS - Fidus Investment Corp.
$18.67
0.38 (2.08%)
▲
5d:
-3.96%
30d:
-2.15%
90d:
-3.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FDUS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FDUS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.68
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDUS is currently trading at $18.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.80 to $19.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.80 -
$19.41
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.80 -
$19.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.22
Resistance Level
$19.61
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.46
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.9%
Profit Margin
45.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.26
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.06
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$18.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.4%)
$31.12
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: -7.4%)
$14.82
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -7.4%)
$12.60
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$19.09
(+2%)
Analyst growth -5.1%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$17.36
(-7%)
Market implied -5.1%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$12.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.35
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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