Fidus Investment (FDUS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDUS - Fidus Investment Corp.
$19.26
-0.10 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
-1.73%
90d:
-5.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FDUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FDUS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.68
Based on -1.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDUS is currently trading at $19.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.24 to $19.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+11.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$19.24 -
$19.69
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.50)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.24 -
$19.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.91
Resistance Level
$19.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.76
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+11.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.9%
Profit Margin
45.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.24
(0%)
2-Year Target
$19.22
(0%)
3-Year Target
$19.20
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$19.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -7.4%)
$31.96
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -7.4%)
$15.29
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -7.4%)
$12.99
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$19.92
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.4%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$18.11
(-6%)
Market implied -6.4%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$13.16
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.35
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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