Fidus Investment (FDUS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.57
-0.08 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-0.66%
30d:
+2.19%
90d:
-1.11%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$18.73 – $19.52
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.7x
FAIR
vs 9.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$21.60
+10.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$19.02 / $19.94
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FDUS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.95
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDUS is currently trading at $19.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.73 to $19.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.60 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDUS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: FDUS scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.60 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.73 -
$19.52
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.73 -
$19.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$19.02
Resistance Level
$19.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.60)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.71
Wall Street Target
$21.60
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.9%
Profit Margin
45.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.53
(0%)
2-Year Target
$19.49
(0%)
3-Year Target
$19.45
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$19.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.6%)
$31.60
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -7.6%)
$15.45
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: -7.6%)
$13.14
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$21.14
(+8%)
Analyst growth -2.2%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$19.22
(-2%)
Market implied -2.2%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$13.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$19.75
(+0.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FDUS)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits emphasizes $FDUS's high yield and potential performance, recommending it as a hold despite not being a monthly dividend stock.
Key Retail Themes:
High dividend yield
Potential performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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