FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$10.39
-0.21 (-1.98%)
▼
5d:
-2.53%
30d:
+16.74%
90d:
+28.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FGBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FGBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.87
12.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $10.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.13 to $10.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FGBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FGBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.13 -
$10.36
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.4% above Wall St target ($9.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.13 -
$10.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.31
Resistance Level
$10.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.98
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
94.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-196.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.59
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.79
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.99
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 62.5%)
$47.78
(+360%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 62.5%)
$35.07
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 62.5%)
$29.81
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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