FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$9.74
0.15 (1.56%)
▲
5d:
+4.06%
30d:
-2.6%
90d:
+5.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.87
17.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $9.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.42 to $10.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.18
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($9.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.99
Resistance Level
$9.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.98
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-96.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.71
(0%)
2-Year Target
$9.68
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$9.65
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$9.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 62.5%)
$45.48
(+367%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 62.5%)
$32.87
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 62.5%)
$27.94
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.82
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 7:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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