FGBI
FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
SAVINGS INSTITUTION, FEDERALLY CHARTERED
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FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES (FGBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$12.92
-0.15 (-1.15%)
▼
5d:
+9.68%
30d:
+62.52%
90d:
+55.48%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (10%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$7.93 – $11.27
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.9x
STRETCHED
vs 14.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.00
-30.3% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$9.49 / $13.25
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: FGBI is 14.6% above its trading range ($11.27). Market expects 10.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $12.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.93 to $11.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (14.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $13.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $9.00. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.93 -
$11.27
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
9.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$7.93 -
$11.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$9.49
Resistance Level
$13.25
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.6% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 30.3% above Wall St target ($9.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.7% growth expectation is conservative given 255% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.88
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.7% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 14.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.30
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$15.83
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$17.53
(+36%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 62.5%)
$43.61
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 62.5%)
$43.57
(+237%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 62.5%)
$32.03
(+148%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$7.20
(-45%)
Analyst growth -49.6%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$6.55
(-50%)
Market implied -49.6%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$8.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (FGBI)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jan 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Traders on StockTwits are reporting after hours buying activity for $FGBI, with no new news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
after hours buying activity
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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