FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES (FGBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$8.31
0.12 (1.47%)
â˛
5d:
+3.75%
30d:
-0.12%
90d:
-16.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FGBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FGBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.55
28.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $8.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.01 to $8.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.62, while resistance sits at $8.71.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.62, while resistance sits at $8.71.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.01 -
$8.53
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.01 -
$8.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.62
Resistance Level
$8.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.78
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-96.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.94
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.58
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$7.24
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â15)
$8.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$44.75
(+439%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 62.5%)
$28.05
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 62.5%)
$23.84
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.56
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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