FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$8.77
-0.33 (-3.63%)
âŧ
5d:
+5.54%
30d:
-5.29%
90d:
-1.46%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FGBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: FGBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.79
25.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $8.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.67 to $9.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.23, while resistance sits at $9.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.23, while resistance sits at $9.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.67 -
$9.73
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.67 -
$9.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.23
Resistance Level
$9.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.49
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-96.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.46
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$8.17
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$7.88
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â15)
$8.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 62.5%)
$44.03
(+402%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 62.5%)
$29.60
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 62.5%)
$25.16
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.5 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.75
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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