FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES (FGBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$7.95
-0.27 (-3.28%)
▼
5d:
-5.81%
30d:
-5.24%
90d:
-25.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FGBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: FGBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.73
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.63
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $7.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.09 to $9.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: FGBI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+13.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.09 -
$9.02
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.09 -
$9.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.82
Resistance Level
$8.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.23
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-96.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 14.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.46
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$6.99
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.56
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$7.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 62.5%)
$44.25
(+457%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 62.5%)
$26.83
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 62.5%)
$22.81
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$9.62
(+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 11:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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