FGBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FGBI - FIRST GUARANTY BANCSHARES INC
$9.59
0.03 (0.31%)
▲
5d:
+3.23%
30d:
-4.67%
90d:
+1.16%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 17, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FGBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.87
19.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FGBI is currently trading at $9.59, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.42 to $10.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 255.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.99, while resistance sits at $10.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FGBI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.99, while resistance sits at $10.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.23
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($9.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.99
Resistance Level
$10.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.75
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(-6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
255.4%
Profit Margin
-96.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.51
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.44
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$9.36
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$9.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 62.5%)
$45.48
(+374%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 62.5%)
$32.37
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 62.5%)
$27.51
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.82
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FGBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Edgar R Smith III
BUY
138083 shares
2026-03-31
Marshall T Reynolds
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
Bruce Mcanally
BUY
32176 shares
2026-03-31
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