GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$12.34
0.07 (0.53%)
▲
5d:
+5.61%
30d:
+16.81%
90d:
+27.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GCMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.54
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.37
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $12.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.47 to $11.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.25 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.47 -
$11.70
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.47 -
$11.70
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.84
Resistance Level
$11.33
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.66
Wall Street Target
$14.25
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.44
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$12.62
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$12.79
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.28
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 22.0%)
$41.65
(+239%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 22.0%)
$22.30
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 22.0%)
$18.96
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.50
Bull Case
$26.69
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.7
Base Case
$24.26
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.3
Bear Case
$8.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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