GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$12.48
0.05 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
+2.3%
30d:
-1.81%
90d:
+14.29%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GCMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GCMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.83
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.55
7.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $12.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.18 to $13.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $12.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.62, while resistance sits at $12.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+20.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.18 -
$13.43
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($15.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.18 -
$13.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.62
Resistance Level
$12.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.86
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
104.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.67
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.86
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$13.05
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.54
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 21.8%)
$39.37
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 21.8%)
$22.53
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 21.8%)
$19.15
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$27.35
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$24.86
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$8.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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