GCMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$13.73
0.26 (1.93%)
â˛
5d:
-0.94%
30d:
+16.45%
90d:
+28.92%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GCMG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GCMG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.75
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $13.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.51 to $13.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+12.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$12.51 -
$13.87
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.51 -
$13.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.45
Resistance Level
$14.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.21
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$14.71
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$15.22
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.77
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$37.46
(+173%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$23.73
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$20.17
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$29.63
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$26.94
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$9.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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