GCMG
GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
INVESTMENT ADVICE
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GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$14.11
+0.19 (+1.36%)
▲
5d:
+8.29%
30d:
+9.89%
90d:
+0.43%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (20%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$12.35 – $13.28
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.9x
FAIR
vs 11.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.00
+7.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.25 / $14.33
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GCMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.28
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $14.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.35 to $13.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $14.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.35 -
$13.28
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.35 -
$13.28
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$12.25
Resistance Level
$14.33
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.89
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.42
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$14.94
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$15.48
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.93
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$33.86
(+143%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$21.98
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 16.4%)
$18.68
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$29.59
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$26.90
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$9.15
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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