GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$13.08
0.19 (1.47%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
-1.65%
90d:
+1.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GCMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: GCMG is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.94
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.62
4.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $13.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.79 to $13.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+18.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.79 -
$13.47
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.79 -
$13.47
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.38
Resistance Level
$13.46
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.11
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.28
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$13.48
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$13.68
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$38.07
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$22.60
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 20.0%)
$19.21
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$28.36
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.8
Base Case
$25.78
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.3
Bear Case
$8.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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