GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$12.84
0.06 (0.47%)
▲
5d:
-3.82%
30d:
-7.76%
90d:
+13.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GCMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GCMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.75
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.50
4.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $12.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.19 to $13.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+20.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.19 -
$13.85
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.19 -
$13.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.70
Resistance Level
$13.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.89
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.97
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.10
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$13.23
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$37.64
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$22.19
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$18.86
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.51
Bull Case
$28.12
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$25.56
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$8.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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