GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc. Class A Common Stock
$12.43
-0.15 (-1.19%)
▼
5d:
-1.74%
30d:
-6.05%
90d:
+5.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GCMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GCMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.63
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.43
7.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GCMG is currently trading at $12.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.64 to $13.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 136.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GCMG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GCMG scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.88 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.13
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.64 -
$13.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.32
Resistance Level
$13.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$14.88
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
136.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.42
(0%)
2-Year Target
$12.41
(0%)
3-Year Target
$12.39
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$12.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$36.49
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 19.6%)
$21.26
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 19.6%)
$18.07
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$27.68
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$25.16
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$8.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$12.46
(+0.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GCMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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