GOOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GOOS - Canada Goose Holdings Inc.
$8.76
-0.17 (-1.90%)
▼
5d:
-3.95%
30d:
-8.65%
90d:
-22.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GOOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GOOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.42
34.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GOOS is currently trading at $8.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.25 to $9.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GOOS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GOOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.73
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.25 -
$9.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.72
Resistance Level
$9.97
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.92
Wall Street Target
$9.25
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.09
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$7.48
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$6.91
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$8.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 25.7%)
$30.26
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 25.7%)
$17.40
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 25.7%)
$14.79
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$17.19
(+96%)
Analyst growth 75.0%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$15.63
(+78%)
Market implied 75.0%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$6.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$11.10
(+26.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 1:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GOOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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