HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$130.64
1.59 (1.23%)
▲
5d:
+4.33%
30d:
-6.84%
90d:
-13.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$220.48
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.90
4.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $130.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $125.54 to $138.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.50 (+18.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$125.54 -
$138.88
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (87/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($153.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 87/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$125.54 -
$138.88
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.19
Resistance Level
$133.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.14
Wall Street Target
$153.50
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 18.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.79
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$113.06
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$105.82
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$129.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$227.16
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$171.33
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$145.63
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.85
Bull Case
$205.28
(+59%)
Analyst growth 45.7%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$186.62
(+45%)
Market implied 45.7%, PE stable at 21.9
Bear Case
$87.08
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$157.72
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 10:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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