HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$135.33
-1.11 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
-3.44%
30d:
-4.05%
90d:
-9.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.44
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.60
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $135.33, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.92 to $141.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $173.14 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $173.14 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$135.92 -
$141.12
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($173.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$135.92 -
$141.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.13
Resistance Level
$151.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.87
Wall Street Target
$173.14
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 19.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.35
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$119.83
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$112.76
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$134.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$246.52
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$179.67
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$152.72
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.32
Bull Case
$202.45
(+50%)
Analyst growth 34.9%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$184.05
(+36%)
Market implied 34.9%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$92.78
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$161.98
(+19.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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