Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$131.31
-1.93 (-1.45%)
▼
5d:
+1.36%
30d:
+3.0%
90d:
-7.04%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.14
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$131.72
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $131.31, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.62 to $132.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.44 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $134.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.44 (+18.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$126.62 -
$132.19
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($155.44)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.62 -
$132.19
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.05
Resistance Level
$134.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$155.44
(+18.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 17.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$125.01
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$119.01
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$113.29
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$130.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.9%)
$224.78
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$174.33
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.9%)
$148.18
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case
$201.86
(+54%)
Analyst growth 37.7%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$183.50
(+40%)
Market implied 37.7%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$90.60
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$151.75
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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