HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$136.93
4.41 (3.33%)
▲
5d:
-1.57%
30d:
+0.97%
90d:
-12.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.44
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.60
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $136.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.92 to $141.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.5) compared to its historical average (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.50 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $170.50 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$135.92 -
$141.12
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($170.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$135.92 -
$141.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.13
Resistance Level
$151.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.54
Wall Street Target
$170.50
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 19.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.91
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$115.85
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$108.32
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$132.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$246.52
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$175.94
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$149.55
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.23
Bull Case
$203.71
(+54%)
Analyst growth 36.8%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$185.19
(+40%)
Market implied 36.8%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$92.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$161.98
(+22.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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