Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$126.37
-2.01 (-1.57%)
▼
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-5.13%
90d:
-11.29%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HLI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215.71
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.94
5.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $126.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.56 to $135.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.00 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLI scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $153.00 (+21.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$128.56 -
$135.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.1% below Wall St target ($153.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.56 -
$135.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.69
Resistance Level
$135.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.82
Wall Street Target
$153.00
(+21.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
16.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.28
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$110.71
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$103.63
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$126.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.9%)
$230.90
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$167.77
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 9.9%)
$142.61
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.05
Bull Case
$198.99
(+58%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 23.3
Base Case
$180.90
(+43%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$87.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$154.31
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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