HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$138.68
-1.92 (-1.37%)
▼
5d:
-3.13%
30d:
-8.54%
90d:
-0.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$230.01
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$142.82
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $138.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.66 to $147.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.5) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.50 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.50 (+22.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$137.66 -
$147.63
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.7% below Wall St target ($172.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.66 -
$147.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.13
Resistance Level
$151.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.49
Wall Street Target
$172.50
(+22.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
16.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.43
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$126.62
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$120.17
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$140.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$246.52
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$186.67
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 9.9%)
$158.67
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.22
Bull Case
$212.54
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.1%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$193.22
(+37%)
Market implied 37.1%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$95.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$164.54
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-01
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
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