HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$38.30
0.32 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+1.61%
30d:
+2.61%
90d:
+7.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.48
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $38.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.91 to $38.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.91 -
$38.04
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.91 -
$38.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.79
Resistance Level
$38.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.91
Wall Street Target
$39.67
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.79
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.60
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.41
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$37.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 31.5%)
$52.49
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 31.5%)
$38.34
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 31.5%)
$32.59
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$37.81
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.2%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$34.37
(-10%)
Market implied -9.2%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$25.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$38.44
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
Steve B Thompson
SELL
9025 shares
2026-02-06
Martin Bradley Winges
SELL
26000 shares
2026-02-03
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