HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$38.20
-0.10 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-1.04%
30d:
+0.9%
90d:
+1.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HTH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.24
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $38.20, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.52 to $38.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $38.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.52 -
$38.99
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.52 -
$38.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.79
Resistance Level
$38.27
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.90
Wall Street Target
$40.33
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 16.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.82
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.63
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$38.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 1.2%)
$54.17
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 1.2%)
$39.54
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 1.2%)
$33.61
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.66
Bull Case
$37.79
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.7%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$34.36
(-10%)
Market implied -9.7%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$25.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$38.92
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
Steve B Thompson
SELL
9025 shares
2026-02-06
Martin Bradley Winges
SELL
26000 shares
2026-02-03
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