HILLTOP (HTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$38.41
0.48 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
-0.39%
30d:
-0.31%
90d:
-0.49%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.87
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $38.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.08 to $38.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.08 -
$38.86
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.67)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.08 -
$38.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.82
Resistance Level
$39.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.20
Wall Street Target
$41.67
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.25
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.58
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$35.92
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$37.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.4%)
$56.24
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 3.4%)
$41.91
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 3.4%)
$35.63
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.69
Bull Case
$38.42
(+1%)
Analyst growth -7.2%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$34.93
(-8%)
Market implied -7.2%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$25.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$39.92
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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