HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$38.68
0.05 (0.13%)
▲
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
+1.95%
90d:
+3.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.19
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $38.68, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.51 to $39.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$38.51 -
$39.63
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.51 -
$39.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.17
Resistance Level
$40.01
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.53
Wall Street Target
$42.00
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.22
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$37.76
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$37.30
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$38.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.5%)
$55.35
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 3.5%)
$42.84
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 3.5%)
$36.41
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.70
Bull Case
$39.19
(+1%)
Analyst growth -7.8%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$35.63
(-8%)
Market implied -7.8%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$26.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$40.09
(+3.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
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