HILLTOP (HTH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$36.48
-0.42 (-1.14%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
-0.22%
90d:
-8.32%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (77%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$36.38 â $37.30
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.3x
FAIR
vs 15.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$40.67
+10.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.16 / $39.09
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HTH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.13
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $36.48, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.38 to $37.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.67 (+10.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.16. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.67 (+10.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$36.38 -
$37.30
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$36.38 -
$37.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$36.16
Resistance Level
$39.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($40.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.30
Wall Street Target
$40.67
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.8%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$35.48
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â16)
$36.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$62.90
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 9.5%)
$48.44
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$41.17
(+12%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.40
Bull Case
$40.82
(+11%)
Analyst growth 0.5%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$37.11
(+1%)
Market implied 0.5%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$25.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$38.36
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HTH)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Aug 18, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on HTH are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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