HTH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTH - HILLTOP HOLDINGS INC.
$39.44
0.06 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
+0.92%
30d:
+0.18%
90d:
+4.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HTH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.81
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTH is currently trading at $39.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.19 to $39.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HTH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.19 -
$39.39
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.19 -
$39.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.35
Resistance Level
$40.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.03
Wall Street Target
$41.33
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 16.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.36
(0%)
2-Year Target
$39.28
(0%)
3-Year Target
$39.20
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$39.37
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.8%)
$55.38
(+40%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 2.8%)
$42.83
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 2.8%)
$36.41
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.68
Bull Case
$39.76
(+1%)
Analyst growth -8.2%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$36.15
(-8%)
Market implied -8.2%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$26.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$39.61
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gerald J Ford
SELL
259771 shares
2026-03-05
Steve B Thompson
SELL
9025 shares
2026-02-06
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