INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$127.81
0.59 (0.46%)
▲
5d:
+6.37%
30d:
+9.53%
90d:
+31.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INCY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INCY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$209.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.38
2.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $127.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.17 to $124.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INCY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $129.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: INCY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$116.17 -
$124.63
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding INCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($126.04)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$116.17 -
$124.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.56
Resistance Level
$129.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.34
Wall Street Target
$126.04
(-1.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Profit Margin
27.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 12.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.35
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$143.34
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$151.79
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$128.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 154.2%)
$603.60
(+372%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 154.2%)
$431.36
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 154.2%)
$363.91
(+185%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.77
Bull Case
$160.49
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$145.90
(+14%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$86.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
