Incyte Genomics (INCY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$115.30
-1.84 (-1.57%)
▼
5d:
-6.93%
30d:
-10.5%
90d:
-0.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: INCY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: INCY is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.16
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $115.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.40 to $127.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.48 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $114.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $128.48 (+11.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$121.40 -
$127.77
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding INCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($128.48)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.40 -
$127.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.57
Resistance Level
$128.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.08
Wall Street Target
$128.48
(+11.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Profit Margin
27.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.49
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$119.72
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$122.00
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$115.65
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 157.4%)
$606.87
(+426%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 157.4%)
$389.14
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 157.4%)
$330.77
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.58
Bull Case
$149.84
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.3%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$136.22
(+18%)
Market implied 16.3%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$79.66
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
