INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$114.23
-2.48 (-2.12%)
▼
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
+8.39%
90d:
+18.9%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
13d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.94
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.42
5.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $114.23, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $102.00 to $115.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.5) compared to its historical average (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $112.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $112.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$102.00 -
$115.31
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($111.45)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$102.00 -
$115.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.80
Resistance Level
$118.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.53
Wall Street Target
$111.45
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.8%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.5 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.48
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$124.98
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$130.73
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$113.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.8%)
$524.13
(+359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.5, Growth: 41.8%)
$325.70
(+185%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 41.8%)
$276.85
(+142%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.08
Bull Case
$153.04
(+34%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$139.13
(+22%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$79.36
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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Advanced INCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
