INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$104.40
0.74 (0.71%)
▲
5d:
+2.37%
30d:
+7.18%
90d:
+15.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: INCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: INCY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.72
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.59
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $104.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.38 to $103.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.09, while resistance sits at $110.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $96.09, while resistance sits at $110.34.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$95.38 -
$103.22
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding INCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.35)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.38 -
$103.22
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.09
Resistance Level
$110.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.41
Wall Street Target
$109.35
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.8%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.62
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$101.60
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$100.58
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$104.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$324.74
(+213%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 18.0%)
$170.15
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 18.0%)
$144.63
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.07
Bull Case
$138.81
(+34%)
Analyst growth 28.5%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$126.20
(+22%)
Market implied 28.5%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$66.79
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$107.19
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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