INCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INCY - Incyte Genomics Inc
$118.56
-0.96 (-0.80%)
▼
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
+1.45%
90d:
+22.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: INCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$203.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.14
6.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INCY is currently trading at $118.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.54 to $121.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $114.50, while resistance sits at $132.60.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INCY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $114.50, while resistance sits at $132.60.
Market Sentiment: INCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$110.54 -
$121.35
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($122.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.54 -
$121.35
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.51
Resistance Level
$132.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.63
Wall Street Target
$122.86
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.7%
Profit Margin
27.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.90
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$130.52
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$136.39
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$119.05
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 152.2%)
$613.34
(+413%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 152.2%)
$403.38
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 152.2%)
$342.87
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.61
Bull Case
$155.85
(+30%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$141.68
(+19%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$83.63
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-04-17
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Pablo J Cagnoni
SELL
18667 shares
2026-03-17
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's INCY price and gamma walls.
