Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$514.63
-4.88 (-0.94%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.7%
30d:
+1.76%
90d:
+14.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $546.12 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.1% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$862.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$535.57
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $514.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $502.29 to $551.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (22.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $511.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.19 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $511.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.19 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$502.29 -
$551.91
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRTX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($569.19)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.1% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$502.29 -
$551.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$511.00
Resistance Level
$560.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.56
Wall Street Target
$569.19
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 22.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$540.88
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$568.46
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$597.45
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â22)
PE COMPRESSION
$514.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 25.6%)
$1020.80
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 25.6%)
$806.29
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 25.6%)
$685.34
(+33%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.16
Bull Case
$670.47
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 33.3
Base Case
$609.52
(+18%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$353.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 11:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced VRTX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRTX price and gamma walls.
