VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$476.92
-8.47 (-1.74%)
▼
5d:
-9.95%
30d:
+9.46%
90d:
+9.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRTX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VRTX is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$672.96
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$417.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $476.92, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $439.41 to $499.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (21.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $482.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $554.56 (+14.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $482.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $554.56 (+14.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$439.41 -
$499.56
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRTX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($554.56)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$439.41 -
$499.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$482.11
Resistance Level
$533.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.80
Wall Street Target
$554.56
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.4%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 21.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$495.10
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$505.00
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$515.10
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$485.77
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$683.98
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$653.43
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$555.42
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.78
Bull Case
$692.96
(+43%)
Analyst growth 26.9%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$629.97
(+30%)
Market implied 26.9%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$337.62
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
Carmen Bozic
SELL
2329 shares
2026-03-13
Amit Sachdev
SELL
1846 shares
2026-02-25
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