VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$477.10
-4.60 (-0.95%)
▼
5d:
-0.05%
30d:
-4.2%
90d:
+11.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VRTX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VRTX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$681.48
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$423.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $477.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $471.85 to $504.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $465.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $554.91 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $465.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $554.91 (+16.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$471.85 -
$504.45
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($554.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$471.85 -
$504.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$465.00
Resistance Level
$493.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.38
Wall Street Target
$554.91
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.4%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 21.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$482.83
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$488.62
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$494.48
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$477.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$677.48
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.4%)
$627.43
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 12.4%)
$533.32
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.81
Bull Case
$671.86
(+41%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 31.5
Base Case
$610.79
(+28%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$327.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
Carmen Bozic
SELL
2329 shares
2026-03-13
Amit Sachdev
SELL
1846 shares
2026-02-25
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