Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$515.44
0.88 (0.17%)
â˛
5d:
-7.62%
30d:
-1.96%
90d:
+15.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $546.12 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 9.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$862.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$535.56
3.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $515.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $502.29 to $551.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.6) compared to its historical average (22.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $511.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRTX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.19 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $511.81. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRTX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $569.19 (+10.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$502.29 -
$551.91
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRTX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($569.19)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.2% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$502.29 -
$551.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$511.81
Resistance Level
$560.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.60
Wall Street Target
$569.19
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 22.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$542.24
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$570.44
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$600.10
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26â22)
PE COMPRESSION
$515.68
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 25.6%)
$1022.39
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 25.6%)
$805.47
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 25.6%)
$684.65
(+33%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.93
Bull Case
$673.10
(+31%)
Analyst growth 18.9%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$611.91
(+19%)
Market implied 18.9%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$349.90
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced VRTX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRTX price and gamma walls.
