KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$162.75
1.59 (0.99%)
▲
5d:
-3.64%
30d:
-14.63%
90d:
+14.24%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
5d
Get Alerted When KALU Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.93
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $162.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $167.64 to $187.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 183.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.77, while resistance sits at $192.66.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.77, while resistance sits at $192.66.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$167.64 -
$187.36
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($159.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$167.64 -
$187.36
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.77
Resistance Level
$192.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$159.67
(-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.2%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.77
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$160.80
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$159.84
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$162.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 1.5%)
$232.20
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 1.5%)
$170.25
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 1.5%)
$144.71
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.33
Bull Case
$200.74
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$182.49
(+12%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$109.59
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$165.87
(+1.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 10:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
Top Rated Aluminum Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aluminum by analyst ratings.
