Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$150.83
-1.42 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
+1.64%
30d:
-9.91%
90d:
-5.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KALU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$122.22
Based on -6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $150.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.34 to $160.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 305.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $140.33, while resistance sits at $158.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.25 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $140.33, while resistance sits at $158.35.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.25 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$149.34 -
$160.87
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($168.25)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.34 -
$160.87
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.33
Resistance Level
$158.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$168.25
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
305.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 15.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.63
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$137.40
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$130.53
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$151.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: -17.7%)
$166.39
(+9%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -17.7%)
$110.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: -17.7%)
$94.34
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.48
Bull Case
$145.38
(-5%)
Analyst growth -14.1%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$132.16
(-13%)
Market implied -14.1%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$104.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$177.26
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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