Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$118.52
2.27 (1.95%)
▲
5d:
-23.01%
30d:
-21.6%
90d:
-25.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When KALU Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KALU is down 23.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: KALU is down 23.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$132.42
Based on -4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $118.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.55 to $160.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $103.92, while resistance sits at $155.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.20 (+25.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $103.92, while resistance sits at $155.08.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $146.20 (+25.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$133.55 -
$160.18
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.8% below Wall St target ($146.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.55 -
$160.18
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.92
Resistance Level
$155.08
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.45
Wall Street Target
$146.20
(+25.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.7%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.62
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$94.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$84.75
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$122.40
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -12.9%)
$160.98
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: -12.9%)
$84.75
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: -12.9%)
$72.03
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.93
Bull Case
$99.77
(-14%)
Analyst growth -14.0%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$90.70
(-22%)
Market implied -14.0%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$71.72
(-38%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.5 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$167.90
(+44.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 28, 2026 10:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Aluminum Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aluminum by analyst ratings.
