Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$155.08
2.70 (1.77%)
â˛
5d:
-2.11%
30d:
-3.82%
90d:
-14.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KALU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KALU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.31
Based on -6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.43
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $155.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $150.82 to $176.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 305.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $147.66, while resistance sits at $173.12.
Market Sentiment: KALU scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $147.66, while resistance sits at $173.12.
Market Sentiment: KALU scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$150.82 -
$176.71
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($170.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$150.82 -
$176.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$147.66
Resistance Level
$173.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.39
Wall Street Target
$170.50
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
305.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.79
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$140.85
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$134.23
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â16)
$155.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -17.0%)
$170.61
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -17.0%)
$113.05
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -17.0%)
$96.10
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.70
Bull Case
$141.75
(-9%)
Analyst growth -15.4%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$128.87
(-17%)
Market implied -15.4%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$103.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$179.58
(+15.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 18, 2026 2:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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