KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$184.75
13.77 (8.05%)
▲
5d:
+15.7%
30d:
+13.37%
90d:
+4.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KALU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KALU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.44
Based on -6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $184.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.46 to $177.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $186.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (13/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $186.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a weak technical setup (13/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$157.46 -
$177.90
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($169.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$157.46 -
$177.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$150.71
Resistance Level
$186.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.37
Wall Street Target
$169.25
(-8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
305.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.52
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$190.33
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$193.19
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$185.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -16.5%)
$166.49
(+-10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: -16.5%)
$134.68
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: -16.5%)
$114.48
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.95
Bull Case
$163.95
(-11%)
Analyst growth -12.8%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$149.05
(-19%)
Market implied -12.8%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$116.27
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 08, 2026 7:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
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