KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$186.85
0.52 (0.28%)
▲
5d:
+1.57%
30d:
+6.21%
90d:
+48.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KALU is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: KALU is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$213.39
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $186.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.18 to $184.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $162.20, while resistance sits at $194.43.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $159.33. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $162.20, while resistance sits at $194.43.
Market Sentiment: KALU has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $159.33. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$170.18 -
$184.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.7% above Wall St target ($159.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$170.18 -
$184.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.20
Resistance Level
$194.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.20
Wall Street Target
$159.33
(-14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.2%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.20
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$199.77
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$206.56
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$186.17
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$280.84
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 5.7%)
$220.44
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 5.7%)
$187.37
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.18
Bull Case
$242.58
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.4%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$220.53
(+18%)
Market implied 18.4%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$126.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 05, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
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