KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$156.38
-0.37 (-0.24%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.44%
30d:
-2.09%
90d:
-14.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KALU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: KALU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.64
Based on -6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.01
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $156.38, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $154.62 to $180.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (15.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 305.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $148.00, while resistance sits at $186.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $148.00, while resistance sits at $186.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$154.62 -
$180.41
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($169.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$154.62 -
$180.41
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.00
Resistance Level
$186.32
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.85
Wall Street Target
$169.25
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
305.7%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 15.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.28
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$144.42
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$138.79
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â16)
$156.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -16.5%)
$165.17
(+6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: -16.5%)
$114.00
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: -16.5%)
$96.90
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.57
Bull Case
$143.44
(-8%)
Analyst growth -16.8%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$130.40
(-17%)
Market implied -16.8%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$106.59
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 15.6
Stabilization Target:
$176.11
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 29, 2026 12:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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