KALU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum Corporation
$181.10
6.23 (3.56%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
-2.4%
90d:
+53.45%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KALU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.14
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KALU is currently trading at $181.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $173.21 to $187.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $172.51, while resistance sits at $194.43. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KALU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $172.51, while resistance sits at $194.43. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$173.21 -
$187.19
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($159.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$173.21 -
$187.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.51
Resistance Level
$194.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.09
Wall Street Target
$159.33
(-8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
42.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
183.2%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$176.44
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$178.03
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$179.63
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$175.23
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.7%)
$279.18
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 5.7%)
$206.30
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 5.7%)
$175.36
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.17
Bull Case
$233.44
(+34%)
Analyst growth 18.5%, PE expands to 21.5
Base Case
$212.22
(+21%)
Market implied 18.5%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$121.79
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 3:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KALU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Neal E West
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-23
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