Alcoa (AA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$40.21
0.28 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
-4.19%
90d:
-10.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.4% annual earnings decline despite 106% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.4% annual earnings decline despite 106% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.47
Based on -9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $40.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.02 to $43.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 105.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.70, while resistance sits at $44.35.
Market Sentiment: AA scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.59 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.70, while resistance sits at $44.35.
Market Sentiment: AA scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.59 (+35.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$40.02 -
$43.34
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.8% below Wall St target ($54.59)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 80/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.02 -
$43.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.71
Resistance Level
$44.35
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.72
Wall Street Target
$54.59
(+35.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
105.7%
Profit Margin
10.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.83
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$33.74
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$30.90
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$40.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.3%)
$75.42
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: -23.3%)
$29.31
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -23.3%)
$24.92
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.75
Bull Case
$39.79
(-1%)
Analyst growth -9.4%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$36.17
(-10%)
Market implied -9.4%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$27.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.09
(+29.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 8:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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