Is AA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AA is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AA to be between $42.49 and $49.24. The current price is $42.83.

What is the analyst price target for AA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AA is $62.23. This implies a potential upside of 45.3% from current levels.

Alcoa (AA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AA - Alcoa Corporation

PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM

$42.83

0.35 (0.82%) ▲

5d: +1.83%

30d: -15.57%

90d: -12.02%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 15, 2026 5d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $43.49 · last confirmed Oct 8, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -10.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$50.29

Based on -3.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$31.23

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $42.83, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.49 to $49.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 146.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $41.01, while resistance sits at $44.21.

Market Sentiment: AA scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.23 (+45.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $42.49 - $49.24

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 45.3% below Wall St target ($62.23)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $42.49 - $49.24

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $41.01

Resistance Level $44.21

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 8, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.29

Wall Street Target $62.23 (+45.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 31.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 146.8%

Profit Margin 9.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -10.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 7.3 vs 10.2 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -10.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $38.55 (-10%)

2-Year Target $34.69 (-19%)

3-Year Target $31.22 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→10) $43.67 (+2%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.7, Growth: -10.6%) $84.34 (+97%)

Base: (SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -10.6%) $31.22 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 6.2, Growth: -10.6%) $26.54 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 8.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.81

Bull Case $57.05 (+33%)

Analyst growth 22.1%, PE expands to 9.7

Base Case $51.87 (+21%)

Market implied 22.1%, PE stable at 8.8

Bear Case $28.89 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 10.2

Stabilization Target: $59.90 (+39.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +39.9%

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Last updated: October 08, 2026 8:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:33 PM

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