Alcoa (AA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AA - Alcoa Corporation
$44.43
-2.54 (-5.41%)
▼
5d:
-7.94%
30d:
-13.8%
90d:
-25.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
Get Alerted When AA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.38
Based on -4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $44.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.86 to $51.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 146.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.98 (+41.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.98 (+41.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$47.86 -
$51.95
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.7% below Wall St target ($62.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.86 -
$51.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.98
Resistance Level
$53.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.84
Wall Street Target
$62.98
(+41.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.8%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.43
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$36.79
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$33.48
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$44.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -13.0%)
$83.50
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -13.0%)
$32.39
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -13.0%)
$27.53
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.88
Bull Case
$60.04
(+35%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$54.58
(+23%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$31.94
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$58.97
(+32.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 18, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Aluminum Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aluminum by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CSTM
Constellium Nv |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$38 | 69 BUY |
Advanced AA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AA price and gamma walls.
