AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AA - Alcoa Corporation

PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM
$50.32
-0.87 (-1.70%) â–ŧ
5d: -2.95%
30d: +11.9%
90d: -35.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 24, 2026 at $50.55 · last confirmed Aug 24, 2026

Strength: 7.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: AA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.85
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.57
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $50.32, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.07 to $51.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 146.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $48.74, while resistance sits at $53.34.

Market Sentiment: AA scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.98 (+25.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $45.07 - $51.34
Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($62.98)
  • WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $45.07 - $51.34
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $48.75
Resistance Level $53.34
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Aug 28, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.68
Wall Street Target $62.98 (+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 31.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 146.8%
Profit Margin 9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History -6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 8.7 vs 10.5 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -6.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $47.15 (-6%)
2-Year Target $44.18 (-12%)
3-Year Target $41.40 (-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→11) $50.09 (-1%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -10.8%) $84.85 (+69%)
Base: (SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -10.8%) $36.68 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 7.4, Growth: -10.8%) $31.18 (-38%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.81
Bull Case $67.89 (+35%)
Analyst growth 20.6%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case $61.72 (+23%)
Market implied 20.6%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case $34.81 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 10.5
Stabilization Target: $60.89 (+21.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +21.0%
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Last updated: August 29, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL

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