MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$48.82
-0.94 (-1.89%)
▼
5d:
-2.36%
30d:
+4.07%
90d:
+10.3%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MBIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MBIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.41
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $48.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.27 to $50.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.6) compared to its historical average (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$47.27 -
$50.02
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.27 -
$50.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.46
Resistance Level
$50.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.60
Wall Street Target
$53.50
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Profit Margin
39.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.63
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$52.50
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$54.44
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$174.58
(+258%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$68.93
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$58.59
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.10
Bull Case
$74.66
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.5%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$67.87
(+39%)
Market implied 38.5%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$33.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin A Schroeter
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-10
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