Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$53.15
0.17 (0.32%)
▲
5d:
+1.05%
30d:
-3.1%
90d:
+7.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.07
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $53.15, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.78 to $54.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.48, while resistance sits at $55.08.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $51.48, while resistance sits at $55.08.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$52.78 -
$54.77
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($64.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$52.78 -
$54.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.48
Resistance Level
$55.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$64.50
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.12
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$57.16
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$59.27
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.89
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.4%)
$162.73
(+206%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.4%)
$71.43
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$60.71
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$70.37
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.5%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$63.97
(+20%)
Market implied 20.5%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$36.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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