MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$55.18
-0.33 (-0.59%)
▼
5d:
+15.71%
30d:
+10.89%
90d:
+18.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MBIN trades at premium valuation expecting 7.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MBIN trades at premium valuation expecting 7.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.24
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $55.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.22 to $51.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.10, while resistance sits at $56.87.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $46.10, while resistance sits at $56.87.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$47.22 -
$51.67
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($53.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 7.9% growth expectation is conservative given 147% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.22 -
$51.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.10
Resistance Level
$56.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.78
Wall Street Target
$53.50
(-3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 7.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.90
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$64.63
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$69.73
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$55.62
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$166.80
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$78.38
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$62.52
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$68.06
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$61.87
(+12%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$36.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin A Schroeter
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-10
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