Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$47.76
-0.66 (-1.36%)
▼
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
-8.4%
90d:
+2.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MBIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.15
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $47.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.61 to $51.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 146.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+34.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $47.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+34.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$48.61 -
$51.94
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.0% below Wall St target ($64.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.61 -
$51.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.34
Resistance Level
$50.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.95
Wall Street Target
$64.00
(+34.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.66
(0%)
2-Year Target
$47.57
(0%)
3-Year Target
$47.47
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$47.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.5%)
$161.24
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 10.5%)
$64.52
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$54.84
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$63.89
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$58.08
(+22%)
Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$32.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$48.08
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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