Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$49.52
0.56 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
-5.19%
30d:
-4.29%
90d:
+1.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
24d
Get Alerted When MBIN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MBIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MBIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.15
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $49.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.09 to $53.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.01, while resistance sits at $52.97.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+30.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $48.01, while resistance sits at $52.97.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+30.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.09 -
$53.46
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($64.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.09 -
$53.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.01
Resistance Level
$52.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.24
Wall Street Target
$64.50
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.02
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$50.52
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$51.02
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$165.62
(+235%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 10.5%)
$66.90
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 10.5%)
$56.86
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$64.94
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$59.04
(+19%)
Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$33.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:57 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$70 | 46 HOLD |
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$20 | 47 HOLD |
|
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorp… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$93 | 50 HOLD |
|
BAP
Credicorp Ltd |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$427 | 52 HOLD |
|
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShare… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$2339 | 54 HOLD |
