Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$53.82
+0.25 (+0.47%)
▲
5d:
+0.73%
30d:
+10.23%
90d:
-2.76%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (30%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$48.42 – $52.20
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.9x
FAIR
vs 8.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$67.00
+25.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$48.64 / $55.99
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MBIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.61
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $53.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.42 to $52.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $48.64, while resistance sits at $55.99.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.00 (+25.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $48.64, while resistance sits at $55.99.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.00 (+25.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$48.42 -
$52.20
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$48.42 -
$52.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$48.64
Resistance Level
$55.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($67.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.90
Wall Street Target
$67.00
(+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
50.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.7%
Profit Margin
45.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.44
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$57.39
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$59.39
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.1%)
$123.62
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 1.1%)
$55.39
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 1.1%)
$47.08
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.07
Bull Case
$58.27
(+9%)
Analyst growth -0.8%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$52.97
(-1%)
Market implied -0.8%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$36.32
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MBIN)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) reported strong Q3 2026 earnings with revenue up 31.5% YoY to $224.9M and EPS of $2.06, a 47.1% beat of estimates. The company's net interest income, efficiency ratio, and tangible book value also surpassed expectations.
Key Retail Themes:
Earnings Beat
Revenue Growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 10:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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