MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$80.63
1.36 (1.72%)
▲
5d:
+0.31%
30d:
+3.17%
90d:
-7.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MDT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.32
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $80.63, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.10 to $80.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $82.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $82.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$76.10 -
$80.96
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($98.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$76.10 -
$80.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.62
Resistance Level
$82.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.08
Wall Street Target
$98.00
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.1%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.86
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$72.60
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$69.48
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$79.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$173.59
(+119%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$104.28
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$88.64
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.73
Bull Case
$141.75
(+79%)
Analyst growth 62.4%, PE expands to 23.4
Base Case
$128.86
(+63%)
Market implied 62.4%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$53.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$90.27
(+13.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
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