MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$83.57
-0.30 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
+0.61%
30d:
+4.14%
90d:
-4.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.48
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $83.57, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.49 to $82.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.00 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.00 (+16.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$79.49 -
$82.67
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($97.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.49 -
$82.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.14
Resistance Level
$85.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.79
Wall Street Target
$97.00
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$79.77
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$77.94
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$83.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$173.59
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 9.6%)
$109.94
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 9.6%)
$93.45
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$146.42
(+75%)
Analyst growth 61.6%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$133.11
(+59%)
Market implied 61.6%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$56.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$89.66
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
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Advanced MDT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
