Medtronic (MDT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$96.59
3.56 (3.83%)
▲
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
+8.16%
90d:
+16.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
25d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $87.09 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.48
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $96.59, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.64 to $93.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.62 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $96.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.62 (+12.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$87.64 -
$93.90
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($104.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.64 -
$93.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.40
Resistance Level
$96.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.36
Wall Street Target
$104.62
(+12.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.7%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$95.46
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$96.71
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$93.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.6%)
$158.29
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$122.39
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$104.03
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$154.95
(+67%)
Analyst growth 48.9%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$140.86
(+51%)
Market implied 48.9%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$64.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MDT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
