Medtronic (MDT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$86.44
0.15 (0.17%)
▲
5d:
-2.34%
30d:
-6.08%
90d:
+3.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.48
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $86.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.95 to $93.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.83 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.83 (+21.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$88.95 -
$93.16
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($104.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$88.95 -
$93.16
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.22
Resistance Level
$93.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.27
Wall Street Target
$104.83
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.7%
Profit Margin
13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.40
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$84.38
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$83.37
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$86.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$162.59
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 9.6%)
$113.72
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$96.66
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.02
Bull Case
$143.05
(+66%)
Analyst growth 50.7%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$130.04
(+50%)
Market implied 50.7%, PE stable at 21.5
Bear Case
$58.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 14.8
Stabilization Target:
$89.66
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
