MDT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDT - Medtronic plc
$93.35
1.05 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.28%
30d:
+13.83%
90d:
+19.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.64
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDT is currently trading at $93.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.68 to $90.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $94.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDT scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.68 -
$90.64
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MDT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($98.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.68 -
$90.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.72
Resistance Level
$94.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.41
Wall Street Target
$98.44
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.3%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.75
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$96.17
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$97.61
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$93.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$159.96
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 9.6%)
$122.81
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.6%)
$104.39
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.66
Bull Case
$168.06
(+80%)
Analyst growth 65.5%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$152.78
(+64%)
Market implied 65.5%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$62.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Kevin Hern
SELL
2026-03-20
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDT price and gamma walls.
