MPLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPLX - MPLX LP
$57.68
0.78 (1.37%)
▲
5d:
+3.61%
30d:
+3.7%
90d:
-1.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.44
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPLX is currently trading at $57.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.29 to $56.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $57.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$55.29 -
$56.55
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with -2.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.29 -
$56.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$54.32
Resistance Level
$57.28
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.68
Wall Street Target
$60.71
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.4%
Profit Margin
40.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.85
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$58.03
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$58.20
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$57.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$135.16
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 7.9%)
$72.48
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$61.61
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.62
Bull Case
$66.90
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$60.82
(+5%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$38.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPLX price and gamma walls.
