Is MPLX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MPLX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MPLX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MPLX to be between $58.62 and $59.73. The current price is $59.84.

What is the analyst price target for MPLX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MPLX is $62.85. This implies a potential upside of 5.0% from current levels.

MPLX LP (MPLX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MPLX - MPLX LP

PIPE LINES (NO NATURAL GAS)

$59.84

0.21 (0.35%) ▲

5d: +0.84%

30d: -0.17%

90d: +5.93%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $59.67 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 5.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$79.85

Based on 7.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$49.58

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MPLX is currently trading at $59.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.62 to $59.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $58.62 - $59.73

Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($62.85)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $58.62 - $59.73

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $58.78

Resistance Level $60.39

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.40

Wall Street Target $62.85 (+5.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 3.2%

Profit Margin 39.3%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.0% premium

PE vs Historical 12.4 vs 11.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $61.04 (+2%)

2-Year Target $62.26 (+4%)

3-Year Target $63.50 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) PE COMPRESSION $59.92 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.4%) $130.97 (+119%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 10.4%) $80.51 (+35%)

Bear: (PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.4%) $68.44 (+14%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 12.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.60

Bull Case $68.81 (+15%)

Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 14.3

Base Case $62.56 (+5%)

Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 13.0

Bear Case $40.55 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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