MPLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPLX - MPLX LP
$58.64
0.19 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
+2.59%
90d:
+3.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPLX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.75
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPLX is currently trading at $58.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.34 to $57.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPLX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MPLX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$56.34 -
$57.86
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with -2.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.34 -
$57.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.41
Resistance Level
$60.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.00
Wall Street Target
$60.92
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.4%
Profit Margin
40.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.15
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$59.86
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$60.58
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.4%)
$139.42
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 11.4%)
$80.71
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 11.4%)
$68.60
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.60
Bull Case
$67.10
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.9%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$61.00
(+4%)
Market implied 5.9%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$39.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MPLX price and gamma walls.
